The coalition wants the president to be elected by the Riigikogu and aims for the debate to find a candidate to begin in February.

"This is a constitutional responsibility assigned to the parliament. So we hope there will be a broad-based debate beforehand, which we can already start in February," said Toomas Uibo, chair of the Eesti 200 parliamentary group.

If the president is elected by the Riigikogu, the coalition will have a greater say in selecting the candidate. If the Riigikogu fails to elect the president and the choice moves to the Electoral College, which includes representatives from local governments, a candidate supported by Isamaa and the Center Party would have a stronger chance.

"There's already been talk that the Reform Party-led government wants, at all costs, to install an obedient president in Kadriorg — someone who would silently or implicitly legitimize their policies," said Isamaa chair Urmas Reinsalu.

"The Reform Party will do everything it can to ensure that Estonia gets a strong president — someone competent, capable and balanced, especially on matters of security and foreign policy," said Õnne Pillak, chair of the Reform Party's parliamentary group.

None of the politicians interviewed by "Aktuaalne kaamera" named any potential new candidates. One possibility is that Alar Karis could continue as president. Reinsalu said the coalition does not support that option. Pillak called it speculation.

"We've seen, over the past few weeks, covert attempts by the current political leadership to sideline the sitting head of state. That is absolutely unacceptable," Reinsalu said.

"That's Urmas Reinsalu's speculation — maybe because he wants to become president himself and is looking for flaws in others. But no, we have not undermined the sitting president," Pillak replied.

To elect the president in the Riigikogu, 68 votes are needed. That number could be reached if the coalition gains support from the opposition Social Democrats and a few unaffiliated MPs. No agreements have been made, said Tanel Kiik, deputy chair of the Social Democratic Party.

"Of course politicians talk and there have been conversations behind the scenes. But the coalition currently lacks both the political clout and the moral authority to put forward a candidate of their own who could immediately secure the required votes," Kiik said.

SDE leader: No way to elect president in the Riigikogu without us

"The Social Democrats will certainly take part in efforts to find common ground that would lead to electing the president in the Riigikogu, as this is the core intent of the Constitution. We do not rule out the re-election of the current president, Alar Karis, nor many other candidates whose names have already been publicly floated," Social Democratic Party chair Lauri Läänemets wrote on social media.

"Given the political landscape in the Riigikogu and the attitudes some parties have toward one another, it's clear that a president cannot be elected in parliament without the Social Democrats. Thinking about past choices, it's hard to imagine that figures like Henn Põlluaas and Kersti Kaljulaid would have much overlap," he added.

At least 68 votes are needed to elect a president in the Riigikogu.

"The current numbers [seats in the parliament]: Reform Party – 39, Social Democrats – 14, Eesti 200 – 13, Isamaa – 11, EKRE – 10, Center Party – 8, unaffiliated – 6. Mathematically, the most likely agreement would involve the coalition, the Social Democrats and a couple of unaffiliated MPs."

Läänemets said that judging from yesterday's comments, it's apparent that Urmas Reinsalu understands Isamaa has no real chance of influencing the presidential selection in the Riigikogu.

"That's why they prefer the Electoral College (that includes local government electors, in addition to MPs – ed.) where their position is somewhat stronger. But in my view, it will not be possible to move from common ground to concrete agreements before the start of summer. No one knows what will become of today's governing coalition by the end of summer, when the presidential election is scheduled. The government will likely lose its majority in the Riigikogu during this period and it's unclear what kind of coalition or electoral math we'll even be dealing with," he said.

According to Läänemets, reaching an agreement in the Riigikogu also depends on another key factor.

"A joint candidate must reflect as broad a consensus in parliament as possible, not just the preference of the ruling coalition. Past experience shows that such proposals can quickly fall apart. Going forward, I would recommend keeping all coalition council discussions out of the presidential election process."

Kaljulaid: Coalition endorsement a kiss of death

Läänemets was seconded by fellow SDE member Raimond Kaljulaid who wrote that the announcement by coalition parties Reform and Eesti 200 shows these two parties are, unfortunately, out of touch with reality.

"They simply don't understand what the Estonian public thinks and feels about them, nor how little trust they command even among their parliamentary colleagues. No government has ever faced such low levels of trust," Kaljulaid wrote.

He pointed out that a coalition council made up of two parties that together have just 12 percent public support has no realistic chance of leading a process that requires securing a two-thirds majority in the Riigikogu.

"What serious individual would want to put themselves forward as a candidate in this kind of farce? Bringing such a decision and discussion into the coalition council can only be seen as a political game — not a serious undertaking. What's more, it's practically impossible to see Reform Party leading this process, given their past, when they managed to present two competing candidates at once and caused epic confusion," he added.

Kaljulaid argued that if the coalition were to put forward a candidate, that person would not receive support because the coalition lacks credibility. "Any endorsement from the coalition, even for a highly respectable candidate, would, unfortunately, be a kiss of death."

The presidential election is scheduled to take place in late summer 2026 and, if necessary, in the fall, should the Riigikogu fail to elect a president and the decision pass to the electoral body.

The article was updated to add comments from SDE politicians Lauri Läänemets and Raimond Kaljulaid.

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