Expert: No point expecting quick solutions to end the war in Ukraine
Russia wants to be able to tell its citizens that the goals of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have been achieved this year. However, Moscow appears to have no interest in halting military action quickly, security expert Rainer Saks believes.
Saks said Russia's words do not match its actions, and this is why Moscow is making big demands about Ukraine ceding during discussions about ending the war.
"We're seeing two elements. One is peace talks, and on the other hand, there is intense fighting on the front lines," Saks said.
But the expert said things are not going so well for Moscow.
"I would not go so far as to say that Russia plans to spend all of 2026 waging war, because they are facing serious problems, and they would not engage in peace talks for no reason," Saks added. "Four years of full-scale war have not produced results, and based on that, Russia has to reassess its actions."
Saks highlighted that President Vladimir Putin's New Year's address was terse and focused almost entirely on the war.
"At the beginning of the war, the Russian president wanted to show that the war was happening somewhere far away and was mostly the army's concern. Now, the address sounded more like a cry for help," he said.
"That demonstrates that the Russian army is having problems with reserves. We are also seeing a decrease in the intensity of attacks on the front," Saks added. "Since September, Russian army losses have been very large, and they have not been able to make up for them through recruitment."
Looking at the broader context, Saks said Russia's political system is built around a strong president who cannot publicly show any weakness.
"Even if they are internally weak, the public warlike rhetoric will not change. This is an important element of misleading the enemy, and it is also necessary to leave the impression on their own people that the regime is strong," he explained.
"There is no point in expecting quick solutions to the war. Russia will certainly bring surprises to influence the course of negotiations," Saks said.
"Still, I maintain that Russia would like to achieve a result this year that would allow it to tell its citizens that they have achieved success in Ukraine," he added.
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Editor: Helen Wright
Source: Vikerraadio
