Experts: Ukraine peace talks via intermediaries bring little prospect for progress
As long as Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations are conducted through intermediaries, a suitable deal is unlikely to emerge, some experts in Estonia say.
Ukraine in particular seemingly has little say in the ongoing formulation of the 20-point peace plan.
Of the three parties to the talks — the U.S., Ukraine and Russia — it is the first of these which has been displaying the most impatience. President Donald Trump has expressed a need to find a breakthrough in 2026. Meanwhile, Moscow is exploiting this impatience to influence Trump into putting pressure on Ukraine to accept a deal not in its best interests.
This is happening to the extent that Trump is practically doing Russia's bidding now, political scientist Karmo Tüür said.
"Trump is largely doing what Russia wants. He sees that he cannot pressure Russia and instead applies pressure where he can. Trump is currently playing an unsuccessful game for himself, hoping to get a checkmark on the calendar," he told "Aktuaalne kaamera."
A drip-feeding to the media and public of various forms of a proposed peace deal first unveiled in the fall is also Russia's way of creating the illusion, primarily to a U.S. audience, that it is ready to negotiate, Tüür went on. "What they are actually seeking is to show that they are ready for peace or peace talks if, through peace, they achieve more than through war."
Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko agreed with this position on the peace process so far.
"Trump and Zelenskyy may have agreement on something here, but it looks like an American position that Zelenskyy has accepted," he said.
Ukraine expert Vitali Portnikov told "Aktuaalne kaamera" that peace negotiations must take place between the warring parties. As long as communication continues only via U.S. intermediaries, it will remain simply words.
"If they are unable to talk about peace with each other, then both sides are actually only interested in not falling out with Washington. This has nothing to do with a real peace process," Portnikov said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump are due to meet on Sunday in the U.S., with the revised version of the peace plan proposal on the agenda.
This latest plan includes a proposal to withdraw Ukrainian forces from Donbas and to establish a demilitarized free economic zone there, and for "article 5-like" security guarantees to be provided to Ukraine.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Johanna Alvin
Source: "Aktuaalne kaamera"
