War has not disappeared from the European continent. On the contrary — tragically, it is more real now than ever before. The Russian Federation's brutal and illegal attack on Ukraine is clear proof of that. Thanks to the sacrifice of the Ukrainian people, we have been given a chance to prepare for modern warfare of a kind no one could have foreseen before Russia's invasion. We cannot afford to sleep through this opportunity.

The ancient Greek historian Thucydides once said: "Power is confined to equals in power. The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." So where does that leave us and our beloved Republic of Estonia? Are we among the weak, fated to suffer? Or is there a way for even a small country to achieve equal footing with a great power at a decisive moment?

Our people

"If history teaches us anything, it is that warnings alone are not always enough to protect the victim from surprise /.../ I attribute that to a couple of things: One is the normal human tendency to deny tragedy, to deny catastrophe — that was quite prevalent — and another is they did not want to panic their public, and the third was they thought they knew Russia super well." (Gen. Mark Milley on the start of the war in Ukraine)

In my view, there is a real risk that our society may fall into the same trap. That places a very important responsibility on us, as members of the Defense Forces: to maintain society's vigilance. We must not incite panic, but at the same time, we cannot downplay the problem.

We need to offer our verified knowledge of the enemy wherever possible to strip away the power of mystery. We must be ready to give advice on how civilians can better prepare themselves or what to do in difficult situations, such as coming under indirect fire.

By doing so, we become a strong voice in society, one that is trusted for its honesty and respected for its expertise.

If Ukraine has shown us anything, it is that a motivated soldier needs a solid foundation behind them. On a personal level, that means their loved ones are protected, fed and mentally supportive of their fight. On a societal level, it means the people are prepared to endure hardship and suffering so that their defense forces can keep fighting. This includes both public support for our actions and material support.

We need all of that. It is our duty to explain to our people what "war" means, as clearly and truthfully as we possibly can.

The threat

Based on the current global balance of power and prevailing trends, it is unfortunately likely that the war in Ukraine will not end with Russia having been rendered incapable of taking further action against us.

In my assessment, the war in Ukraine will, one way or another, come to a de facto end in 2025. After that, the Russian Federation will be a state whose entire economy is geared toward its war industry, with an army equipped with combat experience in modern warfare, modernized equipment and a dictator whose hope of staying in power for life depends on keeping the country at war — not to mention Russia's ongoing imperialist ambitions.

This means that once Russia emerges from the war in Ukraine, it will begin to restore the combat readiness of its military. At the same time, we can expect it to actively test and prepare new targets through destabilizing actions and campaigns.

In my view, the year 2027 is when Russia's combat readiness will be fully restored — and if, at that point, it sees a favorable opportunity to deploy its military somewhere, it will do so.

The key to victory

What is the formula for victory against such an overwhelming threat? It's simple:

R = M × W × A

R stands for resistance. As long as none of the elements that make it up break, our resistance cannot be broken.

M is means — this includes all available resources: people, weapons, vehicles, ammunition and all other material necessities required to achieve our goal.

W stands for will — the will to fight, to attack, to defend, to endure hardship, the ability to manage under pressure and keep moving toward our objective despite every obstacle.

A is authorization. This refers to the mandate to act. More specifically, I mean our mandate to operate in all kinds of situations — even those that may not present as direct military threats — but which require decisive action to neutralize the danger. This also includes our allies' authorization to act alongside us from the very first moment such action becomes necessary.

Our Defense Forces

The war in Ukraine has shown that, in my view, we must be significantly better prepared by 2027 than we are today. Developments have moved so rapidly that major leaps forward are required in several key areas:

1. Fighting will.
2. A sustainable human resource strategy and practice.
3. Situational awareness and understanding.
4. Achieving combat readiness across military capabilities.
5. An effective kill chain that, if necessary, delivers effects preemptively on enemy territory.

Active planning is underway to determine how the Defense Forces can achieve a new state of normalcy by 2027.

In short, this means establishing a round-the-clock functioning combat readiness posture. That brings additional demands for all of us.

We must be ready to make changes in our resources, routines and practices. This requires the contribution of every single service member — it cannot be achieved by placing the burden on just some of us. It calls for a reexamination of the conscript training cycle to determine how best to integrate conscripts into a continuously functioning combat-ready force.

1. Fighting will

Fighting will is both an individual and collective decision to fight for the achievement of a goal, despite the inherent risk of death. The foundations of fighting will include physical and mental resilience, skills, adequate weapons and equipment, prior experience of success in similar situations and faith in one's commander, fellow unit members and the righteousness of the mission.

The war in Ukraine has shown that while the most horrific acts, new technologies and innovations may dominate headlines, the irreplaceable link in all of it is the human being. Russia is highly skilled at eroding fighting will and a less aware individual often doesn't even realize how the effects — dripping in drop by drop — eventually cause the cup to overflow.

The development of fighting will must be approached systematically, through improved quality of training and the enforcement of combat discipline at all levels. Training must be focused on winning and derived from wartime tasks.

Achieving this requires studying the problem and involving service members to gain a clear understanding of the current state of fighting will within the ranks. I expect every service member, at every level, to be ready to contribute honestly to this effort.

2. Sustainable human resource strategy and practice

In the Defense Forces, personnel management must be driven by a meaningful human resources strategy, with a focus on motivated, competent leaders at every level who are capable of implementing solutions independently.

This strategy is being developed by the Estonian Defense Resources Agency (KRA) and each of us must support its implementation.

At the same time, we cannot place the entire burden on KRA and wait for them to fix everything for us. There are many things we can improve ourselves, such as:

• Restoring respect for traditions, symbols, shared activities, discipline, historical role models and events — through proactive leadership;
• Improving transparency in existing practices (e.g., clear and shared criteria for performance bonuses);
• Practicing honest and constructive feedback;
• Keeping an open mind toward innovation and being willing to embrace change.

It saddens me that there are fighters among us who, for one reason or another, have become disillusioned with the system of the Defense Forces. But the flame that once brought us here must not be extinguished. We cannot change the past, so my proposal to you is this: let's turn a new page together. Let the past be the past and let's work toward the future as a team. For those who cannot find that fresh start within themselves, I hope they'll have the wisdom to step back and seek fulfillment in other areas of life.

Ultimately, my wish is for the Defense Forces to become more collegial, more humane and a better place to serve.

3. Situational awareness and understanding

We must achieve situational awareness and translate it into a shared understanding of the situation. This creates the conditions for decision-making processes that can prevent threats before they emerge.

Doing so requires the creation of new structures specifically tasked with these responsibilities. More importantly, we need to ensure that all of us interpret the situation and the threat in the same way through the lens of the Defense Forces. If a civilian were to stop someone on the street and ask what the Defense Forces is preparing for, the answer should be consistent across the board.

That means we must inform every service member throughout our entire structure with unified messaging, while still respecting information needs and access restrictions. Commanders play a key role in this, but it also requires making broader situational overviews more widely accessible.

Achieving combat readiness across military capabilities

We must bring our military capabilities to full combat readiness so that we are prepared to assert control preemptively across all domains of warfare: air, land, sea and cyber.

This means, on the one hand, acquiring new, modern capabilities that we have identified as necessary based on lessons from the war in Ukraine. We will reassess procurement priorities and ensure we have the equipment most essential for waging modern warfare. Where necessary, we will accelerate the acquisition of certain capabilities.

But acquiring equipment and gear alone is not enough. We need trained personnel who know how to operate that equipment effectively. This is one of the key objectives for the upcoming "interim year." That year must focus on the training of active-duty personnel to implement the lessons learned from Ukraine. These changes must ultimately be reflected in conscript training as well.

5. An effective kill chain

We must ensure that we have the capability to identify targets, track them, direct effects against them and assess the results. Importantly, we must also ensure that we have both the authority and the courage to deliver those effects preemptively, across the border if necessary.

We will never be the ones to start a war. But we must not remain passive if it becomes clear that Russian armed forces are moving toward the Estonian border. That requires a clear understanding of the situation, modern capabilities and strong fighting will. In fact, it requires everything outlined in the previous points — to take the fight onto the aggressor's territory.

The equal, the strong and the weak

So who are we? I believe that if all the goals we've set and all the planned actions are carried out, then we will be in a very strong position to achieve our most important objective: a defense force ready for victory.

Independent resistance capability (M × W), strengthened by the real contribution of our allies (A), will have reached a level that nullifies the enemy's options through the deterrence of escalation.

Simply put, the enemy will never find a moment when we are vulnerable to attack. That kind of outcome can only be achieved through real preparation: training, stockpiles, equipment and supplies. Our society must also be strong, resilient and capable of supporting and trusting us. Within our own ranks, there must be a spirit of deep camaraderie and unity. This is what I stand for and I call on all of you to stand for it too.

"Estonia will defend itself in all circumstances and against all threats, regardless of their origin, time or place of emergence and against any overwhelming adversary; Estonia will never surrender." (Estonian National Security Principles 2023)

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