Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace on the morning of September 19 for 12 minutes, far longer than any previous incursion. NATO held Article 4 consultations among the allies in response at Estonia's request.

Questions have since been asked about why the jets were not shot down, and there are calls to do so if Russia continues its tactics.

Merilo said how future incidents are dealt with will be dictated by the situation. He said there was no need to shoot down the Russian aircraft two weeks ago.

"And I claim that shooting them down this time would have been a strategic mistake, the consequences of which would have been significantly worse for us than the diplomatic victory we have achieved in resolving the incident. And many of our allies probably would not have understood such a move. But there is no point— and Russia understands this very well— in provoking us. If they cross that line and we are forced to use force, NATO will respond decisively," the commander told the interview show "Esimene stuudio" on Wednesday night (October 1).

Incursion not a "test" 

The incursion took place near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland and the Finnish, Swedish, and Italian air forces intercepted the Russian aircraft. Italy's jets are stationed in Estonia as part of NATO's rotating Baltic Air Policing mission.

Merilo said a set of well-rehearsed procedures was activated and through calm and deliberate action, a foundation has been laid for subsequent diplomatic processes. This has since strengthened NATO's collective defense in the region.

While some security experts and commentators have called the incursion a "test" by Russia to check NATO's reaction, Merilo did not agree.

"Russia looks at us the same way we look at them — we try to understand what they are doing, how they are doing it, and we constantly assess each other's capabilities. They have no need to test us, and in this case, we can rather say it was an escalatory step, aimed at creating broader reverberations between us, and likewise, at creating conditions under which things might go a bit better for them in Ukraine, where things are not currently going well," he told the show.

Merilo dismissed Russia's explanation that the violation was a navigational error. He said they flew in Estonia's airspace too long for that.

Estonia prepared to use lethal force

He called Russia's actions foolish and extremely dangerous: "Playing with the possibility of escalation, especially the possibility of unintended escalation, is completely irresponsible. To protect our people, we are also prepared to use lethal force."

It is known what weapons the Russian fighter jets were carrying and they are not used to destroy ground targets, the EDF commander noted.

"More than that — modern weapons systems are so powerful that to destroy targets in Estonia, aircraft do not even need to leave Russian airspace. Therefore, a few steps were missing that would have qualified them [the Russian jets] as an immediate threat. As with the use of lethal force anywhere, there must be an immediate threat to human life. That was not the case at that moment, and that's why the jets were not shot down," he explained.

If the use of force had been necessary, the decision would have had to come from NATO. Neither the EDF commander nor any Estonian politician has that authority, Merilo added.

Theat assessment unchanged

Estonia's overall threat assessment has not changed as a result of these violations, and the risk of a conventional military attack has not increased, the commander said.

"Because Russia is still stuck in Ukraine, it's clearly tied up there, and it does not have the strength to launch a second military operation in any direction, let alone against NATO," he noted.

"But threat assessments are constantly changing, because we see that various activities directed toward Europe and us are, in a way, old methods being revived. There's nothing surprising about it. So I argue that adjusting the threat assessment is a completely normal process. There is no need to be afraid; we are preparing and trying to understand what else we might face in the future so we can prevent it," Merilo added.

Asked if NATO's Air Policing Mission might soon develop into an air defense mission, Merilo replied that if the situation continues to escalate, it is likely this will happen.

"There's a fundamental difference, and the most important part, I argue, is a shift in mental attitude — both for us and for the adversary. It means we are ready to decisively use force and neutralize a threat as early as possible. That would be an indication that we are entering a new model, where the global situation is becoming even more dangerous. We have already left difficult times behind and entered a dangerous era," the commander said.

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