Expert: Russia faces recruitment issues, but no sign of reducing efforts
While Russia is facing human resources difficulties in its war on Ukraine, it is continuing and even ramping up efforts, Defense Ministry readiness department chief Gert Kaju said.
The country is continuing to tinker with its approach to both conscription and contracting soldiers, after both methods have started to yield lower and lower returns.
Russia has picked up the pace of its operations in the past week, and this has been matched by a rise in casualties, Kaju noted, putting the figure of assaults per day at around 200 on average, with accompanying losses of over a thousand a day.
The epicenter of fighting remains in Donetsk oblast, which Russia claims for itself after amending its constitution in September 2022.
Russia has begun using armored units there, with the goal of expanding the Dobropillia salient, though Ukraine has effectively repelled these attacks, Kaju noted.
Russian forces have achieved some success in the Zaporizhzhia region and in the direction of Pokrovsk, where Russian military activity threatens supply routes running east from Zaporizhzhia. "If Russia continues to make gains in the Zaporizhzhia region, this could lead to the focal point of fighting shifting further west," Kaju said, speaking at a press conference on Friday.
There are also reports of a law change being developed in Russia which would allow the participation of reservists in combat operations on foreign territory without officially declaring war or mobilization.
"That means that, through reserve training musters, it would be possible to involve these reservists in combat operations in Ukraine. This concerns primarily those reservists who have signed so-called readiness contracts with the Ministry of Defense," Kaju continued.
These reservists might be unlikely to disregard call-ups too.
"Those reservists who receive the call and ignore it, and are later caught – they will almost certainly be sent to punishment units fighting in the toughest front-line sectors. Through such a fear factor, the numbers related to desertion remain quite low," he added.
Russia also changed the procedure for conscription: Instead of being done in rounds, at particular times of year, conscription can now be held at any time of year. "The goal being to ensure, on the one hand, the filling of military positions left vacant through conscripts, but on the other hand, to expand the recruitment base," Kaju explained.
He pointed out that in Russia, local levels have started paying soldiers less for signing contracts.
While Russia made a switch to paid contracts, to induce people to join, particularly from poorer areas in the east, at the local level the sums paid have started to fall.
"In some cases, they previously paid three million rubles for signing a contract, but now it has fallen to a few hundred thousand rubles," he added. Three million rubles is a little under €32,000.
The quality of volunteer soldiers has also significantly declined – one-third of those who have signed contracts are over 45 years old and in poor health.
Kaju stressed that the increase in combat activity, legal changes, and fall in quality of volunteers indicate that Russia is nevertheless continuing its efforts to sustain the war, regardless of talk of agreements or ceasefires.
"Clearly they have no plans in the near future to change their stance here or to engage in any cease-fire negotiations," Kaju concluded.
A map of the Ukraine fronts updated in real time is here
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Valner Väino
