In recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian refineries and export terminals, Reuters news agency reported.

Shortages of fuel and disruptions to gasoline supplies have been reported for more than a month in over 10 regions across Russia, the Izvestia newspaper reported, citing a fuel producers' union.

Vare said the gasoline crisis is causing frustration in Russia.

"The main effect is that it makes the war visible in Russian society, especially in major cities. Until recently, this war was not really visible at all. And that has actually been one of the problems. Now it is visible – the lines are visible. The gasoline shortage is visible," he told Sunday's "Ukraina stuudio".

Vare said Russia has approximately 38 oil refineries, 16 of which have been hit by Ukraine over the past two months.

Each facility is supposed to supply the surrounding area, within a radius of 400 to 500 kilometers. But now the functioning refineries are compensating for those that have been damaged .

"You can see from this map that in the Far East there most likely isn't a problem – not because the refinery there is fully operational, but because part of its output is being brought somewhere to the central region, since the refineries located in the European part [of Russia] have suffered the most damage," said Vare.

The expert explained that to understand the impact of the strikes, they need to be divided into two categories: attacks on oil refining capacities, and strikes on oil storage and transportation infrastructure.

"Strikes on oil pipelines and pumping facilities are very painful. A large part of Russia's domestic supply is transported through pipelines, and if the junction stations are hit, then naturally it hurts. The most painful, however, is the destruction of refining equipment, because very often the technology for these facilities is of foreign origin," he said.

Vare is not optimistic that attacks on energy infrastructure will halt Russia's war machine as the defense industry is driving economic growth.

"As of today, the situation is still that the defense industry is going full throttle. They are producing several times more – 180 to 260 percent – of all major weapons systems compared to pre-war levels," he said.

Vare also acknowledged that the Russians have adapted, and that it may take another couple of years for a significant contraction in civilian consumption to take hold.

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