In recent months, there has been sharp public debate over whether Estonians' views of their financial situation and outlook are overly pessimistic. On Tuesday, the liberal-leaning think tank Salk criticized the Institute of Economic Research (EKI) for changes to its consumer barometer methodology. ERR asked Aivar Voog, research director at pollster Kantar Emor, for comment. He recommended that EKI continue with its current methodology.

In May 2022, the methodology of the Institute of Economic Research's survey was changed. The sample grew, but people began answering confidence-related questions only online, and immediately all assessments of their financial situation turned sharply more negative. How do you comment on this?

A change in methodology can affect results. But if we look at 2022, consumer confidence had already started to decline earlier, at the beginning of the year, in connection with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This decline happened in Estonia and Latvia in roughly the same proportions.

Of course, methodology changes may also play a role. Answers given over the phone are less variable than those given online. That means people feel freer online to give very positive or very negative evaluations. There are also far fewer "don't know" answers over the phone compared with online surveys, where respondents can take their time to think.

Should these different methods definitely be combined — some answers by phone, some online? And should face-to-face interviews also be conducted to get a better picture?

Globally, the share of online surveys has already risen to around 90 percent. In most cases, the internet is used because it is more time-efficient and cost-effective. Other methods are significantly more expensive.

Combining methods, with part conducted by phone and part online, makes sense for certain target groups who cannot be reached online or do not respond there. They are easier to interview by phone. But using multiple methods makes a survey much more expensive, and as I said, online surveys are much more cost-efficient. In most cases, online is a perfectly adequate research method.

When comparing consumer confidence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, we have measured it in all three countries using exactly the same method. Confidence is indeed significantly lower in Estonia than in Latvia. In Lithuania, it is higher than in Latvia. This difference is real and Estonia's low level of consumer confidence cannot be blamed on methodology. There may be a nuance there, but we have conducted comparative studies.

In addition, since December 2023, Emor has been measuring confidence with four questions and our own monitoring survey also shows that Estonians' confidence has not improved significantly. Our indicator is somewhat higher than that of the Institute of Economic Research, but the overall level is the same.

You mentioned that some respondent groups cannot be reached online. Which groups are we talking about?

Some people are harder to reach. I wouldn't say they are completely unreachable, but in some cases it's simply faster to do it by phone. These are usually non-Estonians and younger people. Men also tend to be somewhat harder to reach.

If we now look at the 2025 responses, there is a clear logic. This year has indeed been more difficult. In January, the income tax rate went up, the car tax was introduced and value-added tax increased in July. On January 1, 2026, income tax will rise again by law. People have been bombarded with bad news and food prices have risen very rapidly this year. The governing parties have also clearly not risen to the opposition's broadsides when it comes to explaining their policies.

Looking at comparative data for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the war in Ukraine created uncertainty in all three countries. But in Estonia, the decline in confidence continued into 2023. And that is directly linked to the government's decisions to raise taxes. Such tax increases did not happen in Latvia or Lithuania, and as a result, confidence there is higher. In Estonia, tax hikes have made consumers significantly more insecure.

Confidence is ultimately about feelings, with a big dose of subjectivity. Surely the average Estonian lives better today than in 2009 during the major economic crisis or in 2015. And yet insecurity is much greater now…

There is subjectivity involved and everything happening in society affects the answers. When we measured confidence this year, it actually started to rise in the spring. But again, political events — developments in Tallinn's political life — caused a dip in July. There was also the VAT increase in July.

Everything that happens in Estonia's domestic politics is highly important for consumer confidence.

For example, if you look at confidence through the lens of party affiliation, you can see that those who trust the government and support the coalition have much higher confidence than supporters of opposition parties.

The problem is that support for the governing coalition is so low that their supporters form a small share of the population and no longer significantly influence overall consumer confidence. Opposition parties dominate and their supporters are highly critical when assessing the economic situation.

What would be your recommendation now for the Institute of Economic Research? Should it partially bring back phone interviews or continue with the same method that was changed in May 2022?

As I said, people answer more freely online and the variation in responses is greater.

I would recommend continuing with the same method. A change in methodology will not improve consumer confidence or raise it. It is still linked to the current situation. As I explained earlier, confidence is high only among those who support the governing coalition. It is very unrealistic to expect that a methodology change would adjust the indicators or make them significantly different.

At present, methodological stability is more important and the method in use should be continued. Besides, we have our own comparative study that shows more or less the same results. There is a small difference, but the overall level is similar.

So you consider the Institute of Economic Research's survey reliable?

Every survey has its margins of error, but I do think the results are accurate.

What may have caused some problems is the way the head of the Institute of Economic Research has consistently interpreted the results in a very pessimistic light.

But the results are also reflected in other objective indicators, such as the retail trade volume index.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!