Consumer surveys by the Estonian Institute of Economic Research (EKI) still show extremely low confidence. The index measures people's assessments of their families' financial situation, purchasing power and the state of the national economy. In May 2022, EKI switched from phone interviews to online surveys, a change analysts say affected the results.

"Let's start with April–May 2022, when the survey method was changed," said EKI director Peeter Raudsepp. He noted that at the time, rapid price increases hit the economy, competitiveness fell, and Estonia had the lowest economic confidence index in the EU. "At that time, the assessments were accurate, and in reality, we didn't have a single quarter when we could say the economy was growing."

SALK's analysis indicates that the methodological shift largely explains the sharp drop in reported confidence. Using the Government Office's population survey and its own data, SALK found the situation was far better than EKI's figures suggested.

"This methodological change is the elephant in the room, so to speak," said SALK data analyst Kaido Keerma. He said the shift, having significantly influenced how responses changed, accounts for a difference of roughly 12–20 points in the two-year well-being numbers.

Kantar Emor survey chief Aivar Voog cautioned that there isn't always a direct link between economic indicators and consumer confidence. He said the environment was in flux, making it hard to isolate the effect of the survey change.

"You can't say with complete certainty that the reported decline — ten percentage points — was caused by the methodology," he said.

Raudsepp added that SALK's findings don't alter the broader picture. Even with adjustments, Estonia would still have trailed neighboring countries in consumer confidence at the start of 2023, he said, maintaining a long-term downward trend.

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