More children born in rural areas than cities in Estonia
More children are born in rural Estonia than in cities, but starting a family is hard everywhere, says a Tallinn University researcher, who points to housing loan policy.
The Ministry of Social Affairs has completed a new study exploring how to better support having and raising children. The study shows that more children are born in rural areas than in cities. The average number of children is lowest in Tallinn. Other cities, such as Pärnu and Tartu, have higher averages than the capital, but the highest average is in rural municipalities.
According to Mark Gortfelder, a researcher at the Tallinn University Center for Demography, there are several reasons for this.
"People who are less family- or child-oriented tend to prefer big cities, while those living in rural areas feel a stronger pull toward having children. Housing is also cheaper in the countryside. More broadly, when we think about families with children, the preference is to live in a calmer environment, often with a garden and closer personal connections," Gortfelder said.
In his view, rural areas offer more favorable conditions for having and raising children, while densely built-up urban environments often discourage starting a family.
"The problem lies in areas with large apartment blocks, where there is little peace and quiet and often a lack of necessary infrastructure," he said.
Although recent years have seen some young people move from cities to the countryside, Gortfelder noted this does not offset the urbanization that has already taken place. He added that rural and urban life should not be set against each other, as both must be addressed when considering demographics and birthrates. In particular, he said, housing loan policy needs attention.
"There's a market failure in rural areas — banks are reluctant to grant loans to buy or renovate homes. Things aren't much better in the city either. In the past 15 years, housing prices in Tallinn have risen far faster than median wages. State policy should address both situations, but today it does neither very well," Gortfelder said.
Average number of children in Tallinn family 25% under replacement level
The study notes that the average number of children is lowest in Tallinn, where it stands at about 1.6 per woman — roughly a quarter below the replacement level. This means that in the capital, where one-third of Estonia's population lives, the population would shrink by one-quarter within a generation if not for immigration.
The only reason Tallinn's population is not declining is because of domestic and increasingly foreign migration. In cities such as Tartu and Pärnu, and in most other urban areas, the average number of children is significantly higher than in the capital, the study found.
Large differences in birthrates also exist within Tallinn itself, between garden districts and neighborhoods dominated by high-rise apartment blocks with dense populations. These gaps partly stem from selective migration and demographic composition, but more detailed analysis for Estonia confirms that smaller dwellings in large urban centers — measured by the number of rooms — have a direct negative effect on family size.
In most rural areas, however, birthrates are at replacement level or even slightly above. For example, according to the 2021 census, many municipalities in southern and southeastern Estonia, as well as some in central Estonia, reported an average of 2.4 children per woman. In even more municipalities across the country, the figure ranged between 2.2 and 2.4 among women born between 1971 and 1977.
So far, the lower birthrate in Tallinn has not had a major impact on the city's overall population compared with the rest of the country. This year, the number of residents fell by about 500 in the first eight months, but given Tallinn's population of 461,000, this is considered a normal fluctuation. Last year, the capital's population grew by 238, while the year before it increased by nearly 3,000, largely due to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees.
In 2024, only 9,646 children were born in Estonia — the lowest figure since 1919. Over the past five years, births have fallen by one-third, a decline twice as fast as the European Union average.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Marko Tooming
