Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed he is ready to meet with his Ukrainian and U.S. counterparts. According to security expert Rainer Saks, that marks a significant shift, since as recently as yesterday Russian media had suggested the idea was not being taken seriously in Moscow.

Saks noted that before the Washington meeting, Ukraine made a smart move by declaring it would handle territorial issues directly with Russia. That left the U.S. and Europe free to focus on negotiating security guarantees for Ukraine.

Still, he stressed that a possible Putin–Zelenskyy meeting does not in itself amount to a solution. Any deal must be acceptable to Ukraine and cannot mean capitulation to Russia. In Saks' view, two fundamental changes have taken place since the meetings in Alaska and Washington.

"The first major change is that Europe and the United States are acting together. Serious strategic cooperation has begun toward achieving the end goal, something we haven't seen in the past three years. For Russia, that is the first loss and its biggest miscalculation. In trying to manipulate President Trump, Moscow has in fact driven the U.S. much closer to Europe," Saks said.

If U.S.–European cooperation deepens further, Russia's chances of securing a favorable outcome will shrink, he added.

"The second change is in President Trump's own attitude and behavior. Outwardly, he gives the impression of good relations with the Russian president and even tries to flatter him in somewhat unusual ways. But in reality, pressure on Russia has increased and Putin has likely realized he no longer has time to manipulate the process without offering a real solution. The dynamics have shifted, though the road to an outcome remains very long," Saks said.

He emphasized that the situation on the battlefield will continue to play a decisive role.

"If Russian forces had the strength to push forward and seize new territory, their position would be much stronger. But if they cannot advance and losses remain high, that forces them to consider at least a temporary solution or a pause," Saks said, predicting that the Russian army will throw everything it has into upcoming offensives in a bid for progress.

"At the moment, we're not seeing that, but the possibility is real in the coming days. Much will depend on whether Ukraine's defenses hold. If they do, Russia won't gain much by dragging things out," he explained.

Saks expressed skepticism about claims that Russia has vast untapped reserves. "If those reserves exist, why haven't they been used already?" he asked.

He also pointed out that deliberate Russian strikes on civilian areas have caused a high number of casualties, prompting what he described as angry outbursts from the U.S. president. As a result, Russia now seems somewhat more restrained.

"Still, the risk of airstrikes remains very high in the coming days. Russia wants to project total military superiority over Ukraine and carrying out air raids is one way to manipulate that image in the media," Saks said.

According to him, Putin is now left with only two broad options.

"Either he continues the war as it is, accepting losses and harsher sanctions, or he tries to negotiate the best possible cease-fire position. While he speaks of a final peace agreement, his real calculation may be that in two or three years the situation will have shifted and he could get another chance to achieve control over Ukraine. Those are essentially the two options on his table," Saks said.

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