EU member states last year agreed on a new migration package under which the European Commission plans to redistribute up to 30,000 refugees, principally from the Middle East and North Africa and who have applied for international protection, across member states 2026-2027.

The refugees are now waiting for their asylum applications to be processed in some of the EU's Mediterranean member states, such as Italy, Greece, Spain, Cyprus and Malta, states which have been facing heavy migratory pressure.

Janek Mägi, head of the interior ministry's border guard and migration department, told ERR that the three options — accept the refugees, provide officials to help out or pay a fine — can be in a combination rather than selecting just one.

Other member states in the region and elsewhere face similar choices. For instance, Lithuania must accept 158 refugees or pay €3 million, LRT reported.

The Commission will provide €10,000 per refugee towards the cost of receiving that individual, or a little under €800,000 for accepting 79 people, in Estonia's case.

Mägi noted that redistribution will be decided by the commission from next year.
"Let's say that Italy is, for example, the country which people will start being relocated from. Since relocation will take place next year, everything hinges on who happens to be in Italy at that time, who needs relocating. The European Commission will then decide, for example, that Italy needs help, this number of people need to be relocated from there, and then the Commission will ask member states who would agree to relocate people from Italy," he went on.

If Estonia does not want to accept refugees, it is also possible to send operational aid to Southern Europe, that is, its own experts and equipment, to help relieve the burden of processing refugees in Southern European countries. These experts may be, for example, border guards or reception center workers.

If Estonia does not wish to accept refugees or send processors on site, then there is also a third option, namely to pay southern European countries a one-off so-called solidarity contribution of €1.7 million.

Both the number of refugees and the possible sum of money to be paid have been calculated by the European Commission separately for each member state, according to a formula that the countries have previously agreed upon.

The European Commission also plans in 2027 to relocate up to 30,000 people who have taken refuge in the EU, meaning Estonia will likely have the same choice between paying a fine and accepting 79 people, next year, as well.
The Commission calls the process solidarity in practice, and it is likely to recur in the following years, though every two years the Commission will make a new proposal in terms of the numbers of refugees to be relocated.

This means that member states deferring the decision to accept refugees could lead to larger numbers having to be redistributed at a later date and, Mägi noted, any fine paid instead likely much higher than the €1.7 million Estonia faces this year.

Interior ministry inclined to send experts, pay fine

Mägi said that the decision is likely to be made by the government by year-end; if the decision is to take on the 79 refugees, the decision must be ratified by the Riigikogu.

The ministry itself says it prefers to send personnel to aid with the situation, he went on.

"So far we have helped with our officials, helped to carry out procedures and also helped with our equipment. Our continued preference would be to contribute with aid on the spot, as the problem is most reasonably solved on the spot. Our second preference would be to combine all three of the measures," Mägi said.

Sending experts to the southern European member states would have the advantage of bringing experience that such officials could not get at home, he noted.

The commission is due to make a more detailed proposal on the matter to Estonia and the rest of the EU27 on October 15, and at that time, Mägi said, would take a closer look at which European countries really need help. Estonia can then also start looking at which people in those countries require relocation and aid.

If any refugees do theoretically arrive in Estonia this would most likely happen in 2027, or the second half of 2026 at the very earliest, Mägi continued.

According to the European Union Asylum Agency, around 64,000 asylum applications were registered across the EU in May this year, a fall on 2024's figure. The majority of those seeking international protection were citizens of Syria, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Turkey and Colombia.

Following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria last December, the number of Syrian asylum applications has fallen significantly across the EU, from 16,000 Syrians in October 2024, to 3,100 in May 2025, the agency notes.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!