Putin was bigger winner in Alaska meeting on Ukraine, say Estonian experts
Estonian experts say it's a good thing Friday's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine yielded no agreements. Some still see Putin as the bigger winner in Alaska — others disagree.
In an appearance on Saturday morning's special edition of ETV's "Aktuaalne kaamera," Kristi Raik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) called the meeting "less bad than one might have feared," noting that no deals were struck on Ukraine or on other bilateral issues.
Even so, Raik noted that "the optics of it all were, of course, dreadful," warning that if Trump genuinely seeks to treat Putin with respect, Russia may not reciprocate.
"And the danger remains that Russia can manipulate Trump into making it seem like Ukraine and Europe — not Russia — are to blame for the failure to achieve peace," she added.
Security analyst Meelis Oidsalu also described Friday's lack of agreements as the meeting's most crucial message.
"Donald Trump appeared visibly shaken after the meeting, while Putin fully achieved his goals and showed his allies and Russians alike that he can break through Western isolation without a single concession," Oidsalu said.
Ahead of the summit, Europe worried Trump might halt U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine. Oidsalu said the key now is to watch what comes next, as Republican views on the issue have changed over the past six months.
"Today, more than half of Republican supporters believe arms assistance should continue," he said. "So the current administration's domestic policy has been heavily shaped by internal political developments, and Trump has faced several uncomfortable issues to resolve here."
Kaljulaid: Red carpets won't sway Putin
Meanwhile, Social Democratic Party (SDE) MP Raimond Kaljulaid, a member of the Riigikogu's National Defense Committee, pushed back on the idea that Putin won in Alaska, saying on social media that it's still too early to call a winner or loser.
Kaljulaid wrote that if Putin cared most about red-carpet treatment, as some inferred from the Alaska meeting, he wouldn't have started the war in Ukraine — and he would have been met with red carpet and orchestra receptions in capitals across the West.
"Putin chose a completely different path in 2021–2022," he said. "So the honor of sittting in the U.S. presidential limo in Alaska was hardly a real victory or defeat."
He added that this is why Washington has struggled to get Russia to engage in real negotiations. Russia is being offered normalized relations, diplomatic and economic cooperation, and even Putin's own rehabilitation — promises of everything under the sun — but nothing the Russian leader has found worthwhile.
"Red carpets and palaces aren't what will persuade Putin," the MP stressed. "He's still asking for much bigger things."
He added that the true outcome of Friday's meeting will become clear in the weeks ahead, with the key question being whether the Trump–Putin summit will lead to real negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, a ceasefire and eventually a direct meeting between the two presidents.
"The West and Ukraine now face a dilemma: even in the best case scenario, the end of the tunnel looks like nothing more than a [third round of Minsk agreements], potentially weaker than the previous agreements, unfair to Ukraine and unlikely to hold," Kaljulaid warned.
"It'll be a matter of take it or leave it," he added, drawing a parallel to the Winter War with Finland in which Soviet leader Joseph Stalin ultimately demanded more than before the fighting had begun — and got it.
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Editor: Hanneli Rudi, Mait Ots, Aili Vahtla
