The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies, gives a 28-percent rating to Isamaa.
Center (17.8 percent) and EKRE (17.2 percent) are practically neck and neck.

Support for these three parties remains essentially unchanged since last week, meaning the fall in Reform's rating has bottomed out.
The Social Democrats polled next highest at 13.4 percent, with only two parties, the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed (6.6 percent) and Eesti 200 (3.4 percent), polling below Reform at 11.3 percent.

Parempoolsed's rating is above the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in a given electoral district; Eesti 200, in office with Reform, falls below that threshold.

SDE has seen the largest change of any party in recent weeks, and its rating has risen by 2.5 percentage points over the past month. Parempoolsed's has risen by 1.9 percentage points over the same period.

The two coalition parties together polled at 14.7 percent, a slight rise on the 14.3 percent seen last week, while the four opposition parties jointly had a rating of 76.4 percent.

Norstat compiles its polls on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks. The latest survey covers the period July 7 to August 3, during which time 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were quizzed, both online and over the phone.

Norstat says it weights its sample in line with various socio-economic indicators.
Norstat excludes voters with no party preference from its calculations of party support proportions, and claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of a party by support. So, for instance, results for Isamaa as the most supported party come with a margin of error of +/-1.72 percent, compared with +/-0.7 percent for Eesti 200 as the least supported.

Political scientist: Reform's support fall stops, SDE's rating rises

Commenting on the results, Martin Mölder, associate professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, noted this week's results show that the Reform Party's four-week average support decline has halted, though not with all demographics.

"The Reform Party's result last week, taken separately, was 14.4 percent, so that halted the drop in their aggregate result. The Reform Party's support fall has stopped among citizens who do not have higher education, while among voters with higher education the fall has not yet stopped. The recent drop has pushed the Reform Party to fifth place, clearly behind SDE," Mölder noted.

This fall in support for Reform has been paralleled by rising support for SDE and Parempoolsed, Mölder went on, with both having gained support primarily among highly educated voters.

The next elections are to local government, in October.

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