The entire conflict may have stemmed from the Reform Party's desire to boost its approval ratings ahead of the local elections in October, Saarts went on.

Speaking to "Ringvaade suvel," Saarts said that in this light, the Reform Party's decision Tuesday to leave the Tallinn coalition came as no surprise.

"Looking at what has been happening, there really weren't many options left. One option was to somehow patch up the situation, talk Eesti 200 into softening their stance, and get a new vote, but it seems the Reform Party had lost faith that a third attempt could work out," Saarts said.

Pärtel-Peeter Pere (Reform), who stepped down as deputy mayor the day before Reform left the coalition, confirmed that while in opposition his party has no plans to bring a no-confidence motion against Tallinn mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski, as they had done last month. According to Saarts, Reform simply decided to accept the situation and remain in opposition placidly.

"I think this demonstrates that the original plan, when the coalition first fell apart at the end of June — to have a Center Party–Reform Party coalition or at least some form of coalition backed by the Center Party — has now been buried. That is likely why the Reform Party is accepting that the city will be governed by a minority government of three parties, one which does not include the Reform Party," the political scientist explained.

In Saarts' view, the crisis came to Tallinn quite plainly as the Reform Party hoped to boost its ratings ahead of the local elections and to achieve something significant.

"The Reform Party likely took a look at their ratings in Tallinn in May. Seeing that these were very poor, they considered what they had accomplished while in office in the city. In fact, there wasn't anything major or symbolic to show, so they took this one bold pledge — abolishing kindergarten fees — and then ran with it. I think that if they had known in advance what a mess this would all cause, they probably wouldn't have played that card so readily. But this all perfectly shows that in politics it is often very difficult to foresee and manage all risks," Saarts continued.

According to Saarts, Reform failed to foresee that their coalition partners would be so resolved and not allow them gains. In addition, they could not have anticipated that the mere idea of a Reform–Center coalition in Tallinn would have attracted such a negative public response as it did.

"The Reform Party has really cut itself deeply with this, and as a political observer, I sometimes struggle to understand what's going on; and frankly I feel a certain fatigue from it — I simply don't want to follow it any more because it is just a bad soap opera. The results are indeed the reverse of what was intended: They wanted to improve their ratings ahead of the election, to deliver a big headline item like abolishing kindergarten fees, but now the result is that their ratings are dropping and the fee abolition probably won't happen either," said Saarts.

Saarts was also unable to predict who might become the next Reform mayoral candidate in Tallinn. It had been widely assumed that Pere might be the one for the future, but after the recent coalition crisis, that seems unlikely. Saarts said he cannot assess the candidacy of businessman Urmas Sõõrumaa, whose name has been floated, either, and rather assumes this was all Reform testing the waters.

"In speaking honestly, I don't know whether Urmas Sõõrumaa will become the Reform Party's mayoral candidate or whether it was a test to see whether he would get some public support and positive attention. I think it's still an open question who the candidate might be, but it's clear that it won't be Pere," Saarts noted.

Saarts said he also does not believe that the Reform prime minister and party chair Kristen Michal, has had nothing to do with the Tallinn power struggle.

"I don't believe these stories, considering the Reform Party's history and the fact that it is a relatively centralized party, that everything happening in Tallinn is somehow completely separate from Toompea, the Reform Party headquarters, and the power brokers there," Saarts went on.

"There are likely certain connections to Toompea as well. At least the Toompea coalition tries to show that this is a matter organized in Tallinn, and that they are not involved in any way, but of course, as people who follow politics, we know that in reality the Reform Party as a whole bears responsibility," Saarts concluded.

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