NATO allies are expected to decide on Wednesday to allocate 5 percent of each country's GDP to defense spending. This has already been agreed upon at the diplomatic level, but heads of state must still endorse the compromise with their signatures.

A key part of the 5-percent pledge is that 3.5 percent must go specifically toward direct military defense. Spain, however, has skillfully negotiated an exemption from this requirement.

According to the Reuters news agency, the original wording of the final communiqué was changed at Spain's request. The phrase "we pledge" was replaced with "allies pledge," leaving room for interpretation as to whether the commitment applies to all, some, many or just a few allies.

The Spanish are firmly convinced they do not need to spend 3.5 percent.

"Spain has always maintained that this debate should not focus on percentages, but on capability targets. Spain is able to meet the goals agreed upon within NATO by spending 2.1 percent of its GDP on defense. NATO has accepted this," Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, however, described the situation at a Monday press conference this way: "Spain is convinced it can meet the capability targets with 2.1 percent. NATO is fully convinced that Spain must spend 3.5 percent."

Yet since there is agreement on the need to meet capability targets, it was effectively settled that Spain can "try" to do so while spending less.

Rutte added that whether countries are meeting their capability goals will be continuously monitored, and progress on the Hague agreement will be reassessed in 2029.

Defense minister: No exception for Spain

Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said that no exception is being made for Spain at the summit.

"There is a letter from the NATO secretary general to the Spanish government that can be interpreted in various ways, but it clearly ties Spain's obligations to the same capability targets as for all other allies. This letter certainly does not mean that Spain has been granted any kind of exemption," Pevkur told ERR.

Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) noted that U.S. President Donald Trump also demanded during his first term that Europe do more.

"When we last met with Trump during his first term in Brussels in 2017, he came and demanded that Europe do more — but let's be honest, Europe didn't do anything more. That's what caused the conflict. Now, at least, Europe is agreeing to raise defense spending to 5 percent," Tsahkna said.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stressed that Russia's economy is 25 times smaller than NATO's and must not be allowed to outproduce the alliance in weaponry.

"It is unthinkable that Russia, with an economy 25 times smaller than that of NATO countries, could be capable of producing more weapons than we can. We must spend more to prevent war. We must win this new arms production race. That is the purpose of this summit," Rutte said.

Estonia expects greater defense spending from all allies

Estonia expects the NATO summit to produce a commitment requiring all allies to raise defense spending, the Government of the Republic of Estonia announced.

Estonia is being represented at the summit in The Hague by Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform), Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur and Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna.

Michal stated that while NATO member states have so far been obligated to spend 2 percent on defense, that figure should rise to 5 percent in the future.

He noted that last year, Estonia ranked among the top three NATO countries in defense spending per capita — Poland was first, Estonia second and the United States third.

Beginning next year, Estonia will invest 5.4 percent of its national wealth in defense, Defense Minister Pevkur pledged.

Rutte: Europe need not worry about US commitment

Ahead of the summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that European allies should not worry about the United States' continued commitment.

"My message to my European colleagues is: stop worrying. Finalize your investment plans, ensure your industrial base is ready for the new commitments and keep support for Ukraine at a high level — as, fortunately, it currently is. The United States is here and with us," Rutte said.

Reuters reports that the goal of the two-day meeting is to send a strong signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that NATO remains united, despite criticism from U.S. leader Donald Trump.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump are also expected to meet in The Hague, even though Zelenskyy is not participating in the summit itself.

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