The real test of Estonia's foreign policy resolve and consistency lies in whether we have the courage to once again raise the issue of inviting Ukraine to join NATO at the upcoming summit on June 24–25. If we do so, we can rightly say we are pursuing a values-based foreign policy. If we hesitate, then we are little more than a weather vane.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, Estonia has been a strong and unconditional supporter of Ukraine, both militarily and politically. We have always supported — and continue to support — Ukraine's aspirations to join the European Union and NATO.

For a small country like Estonia, foreign policy can only be effective if our messaging is as precisely synchronized as possible across all levels. Our diplomatic resources are limited, and we must use them wisely.

Let me remind you that in May 2023, just ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius, the Riigikogu adopted a statement "In Support of Ukraine's NATO Membership." The statement clearly affirms that the Riigikogu considers it "imperative" to extend an "invitation to join the alliance" to Ukraine.

Ninety-two members of the Riigikogu voted in favor of the statement; none opposed it. No one has rescinded or amended that declaration — it remains in force and reflects Estonia's unequivocal position on this matter.

An invitation to join is not just a buzzword — it has real substance. Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that NATO members may, "by unanimous agreement," invite any other European state to join the treaty if it is "in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area."

Ukraine is already contributing to the security of the North Atlantic area. It has the most battle-tested and capable army in Europe — there is absolutely no doubt about that. At tremendous and heartbreaking cost, Ukraine has so far managed to repel Russia and defend its independence.

Thanks to Ukraine's bravery and the support of its allies, Russia has not achieved its military or political objectives in Ukraine.

NATO's support has not been driven solely by goodwill or compassion. The truth is that it would be a catastrophe for NATO if Russia were to succeed in swallowing all of Ukraine. I point, for example, to assessments by ISW that a Ukrainian defeat would have devastating consequences for NATO — defending its eastern flank would become significantly more difficult.

When people say that Ukraine is fighting on our behalf, it's not just a figure of speech — it's the reality. And if Ukraine loses, it will also be our loss, and one with a steep price. That fact alone makes Ukraine deserving of NATO membership.

An invitation to join would not mean Ukraine automatically becomes a NATO member tomorrow. But it would be a definitive formal signal that all NATO member states are united in their position — that Ukraine's membership is not up for negotiation.

Invitation to join extremely important for Ukraine

At the end of last year, while addressing the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Montreal, Canada, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [Ruslan] Stefanchuk specifically emphasized the issue of an invitation to join NATO. "An invitation to join NATO would be a powerful message to all Ukrainians, including the defenders of our homeland, the soldiers on the front lines," Stefanchuk said.

Ukrainian representatives have, of course, raised the issue of an invitation on numerous other occasions and in various forums, and I have supported it as well in my role as Estonia's representative. I have done so boldly, because I can cite the clear position of 92 members of the Riigikogu.

If any Estonian representative were to so much as murmur something to the contrary, then forgive me, but that person would be in direct collision with the near-unanimous stance of the Riigikogu, which represents the Estonian people.

Lithuania has also tried to incorporate similar wording to that of the Riigikogu's appeal into the declarations of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. We have supported the Lithuanians in that effort as well — naturally, based on the position adopted by our own parliament.

It is precisely the issuance of a NATO invitation to Ukraine that must be Estonia's official position — not merely a vague or general expression of support for Ukraine's membership. And even if we haven't yet stated this so directly at the level of government, now is certainly the time to do so.

We are not alone on the issue

The foreign affairs committees of the three Baltic states recently issued a statement calling for "concrete political steps that would pave the way for Ukraine's accession to the alliance" at the upcoming summit in The Hague.

It's hard for me to imagine what other action — besides extending a formal invitation — could fulfill that point. Everything else is just window dressing.

In my view, it would be a mistake for Estonia to adopt a wavering approach on this issue — thinking one way today and another tomorrow. In politics generally, but especially in foreign policy, consistency is key. Estonia must have one clear and unified message.

I'm not naive. I understand that the proposal to issue Ukraine a NATO invitation will not yet win support in The Hague. At present, NATO lacks consensus on Ukraine's membership. One can put on a brave face, but the hard truth is that several countries currently oppose it. Whether that "no" eventually turns into a "yes" remains to be seen. But we must continue working toward the goal of Ukraine becoming a NATO member.

We must also be realistic about the fact that the current White House is inclined to oppose Ukraine's NATO membership. But that doesn't mean we should abandon our principles. Would Estonia's own NATO membership have been possible if we had accepted the initial rejections, tucked our tails and gone home just because we weren't wanted?

There are people in Estonia, too, who consider Ukraine's NATO membership provocative. They need to be reminded that it wasn't Ukraine's theoretical NATO prospects that sparked the war. What encouraged Russia to use force against Ukraine was the repeated failure of Western countries to fully back Ukraine — leaving it in a geopolitical no man's land.

The most important point of all is this: no one has granted Russia the right to dictate what kind of foreign or defense policy its neighbors should pursue. Russia does not get to decide with whom other countries may or may not cooperate.

Russia has no veto on anyone's NATO membership

To claim that a neighboring country's NATO membership poses a threat to Russia's security is nothing more than a scare tactic for children. It's not a serious argument. For years, Finland was not a NATO member while Estonia was. Should Finland have considered that a threat to its own security?

If Ukraine seeks membership in NATO and the European Union, that is Ukraine's sovereign decision. The decision to admit Ukraine into NATO is to be made collectively by NATO member states, and there is no obligation to consult Russia. They are entitled to express criticism if they wish — but not to resort to force.

Therefore, I call on the government to base its position at the Hague summit on the declaration endorsed by 92 members of the Riigikogu and to reflect the issue of a NATO invitation in Estonia's official government stance. If we have the courage to say this aloud, we can speak of principled foreign policy. But if we shape our position based on what might be more convenient or palatable to certain allies, then unfortunately, we are simply opportunists — and we will be treated accordingly.

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