The Ministry of Climate plans to submit the new National Energy and Climate Plan through 2035 (ENMAK) for public consultation in July and August. The draft includes several major revisions, with the government stepping away from previously established targets.

The most significant shift is the abandonment of the goal to produce 100 percent of Estonia's electricity consumption from renewable sources by 2030. This objective was set by Kaja Kallas's government in the summer of 2022, but on Thursday, Andres Sutt (Reform) said that Estonia's capacity to meet all electricity demand with wind and solar power by that deadline is neither optimal nor realistic.

"We need to redraw the map based on the new landscape," he explained, adding that the ambition for all energy to be clean remains in place — the question is only when that will happen.

Sutt noted that by 2030, wind and solar energy are expected to cover at most 60 to 70 percent of electricity consumption, with total renewable energy production reaching 75 to 80 percent of final consumption.

"Reaching 100 percent clean electricity could be possible by 2035, but that definition of clean energy also includes nuclear," the climate minister added.

ENMAK will focus on energy security, competitive pricing and reducing environmental impact.

In terms of pricing, this goal means, according to Einar Kisel, an advisor to the Ministry of Climate's secretary general, that while Estonia's household electricity prices are currently lower than the Baltic Sea region average, large commercial consumers — those using more than half a gigawatt-hour of energy per year — face prices above the regional average. In the future, prices should be below the average for all consumer groups.

Sutt added that forecasting the final price of electricity in the near future — by 2030 or beyond — is pointless, as it would be purely speculative. What matters is building local production capacity and developing a market for long-term power purchase agreements, which would be based on direct contracts between producers and consumers rather than market exchange prices.

New priority is nuclear

In May, the government launched a special planning process and environmental impact assessment for a nuclear power plant. A nuclear regulatory body is expected to be operational by 2027, but according to Sutt, a functioning nuclear power plant could realistically be in place no earlier than 2035.

While the state does not plan to offer direct subsidies for nuclear plants, it does aim to help create financing models that would allow for extended loan repayment periods. Sutt noted that the era when nuclear energy was blacklisted globally is over.

"Nuclear energy is a priority," he affirmed.

There will be no auction for offshore wind projects, the minister said, but financial solutions are still needed to help lengthen repayment periods for those investments. Currently, banks expect loans for offshore wind or storage projects to be repaid within 20 years. However, given that storage systems can last around 100 years and nuclear plants more than 60, Sutt believes those timelines should be longer.

"Whether developers are willing to accept a longer payback period is another question. But if there's no appetite, there will be no investment," he said.

According to Sutt, the problem could be solved for banks if large-scale, long-term consumers entered the market.

The completion of the fourth electricity interconnection between Estonia and Latvia will take time and funding remains an open issue. Sutt said that Estonia wants as much as 50 percent of the cost of these connections to be covered by European Union funding.

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