Laura Remmelgas, head of the climate department at the Ministry of Climate, said the ministry has now reached a stage in the legislative process of the Climate Act — officially known as the Climate-Resilient Economy Act — where it has reviewed the most complex issues with stakeholders.

"We're currently working on the final adjustments. We wrapped up our meetings last week, and now we're weighing the proposals and considering possible additions," she said.

The previous climate minister, Yoko Alender (Reform), completed an earlier draft of the Climate Act last fall and presented it to the previous government in December. However, the coalition of the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats did not approve it at the time.

In May, Minister of Energy and Environment Andres Sutt (Reform) stated on Vikerraadio's "Uudis+" program that the state had lowered its level of ambition for the 2040 climate targets compared with the fall version.

Whereas the fall draft aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 82 percent from 1990 levels, the new goal is to cut them by 80 percent.

In practical terms, this means the ministry would now allow about 10 percent more greenhouse gas emissions in 2040 than under the previous draft.

According to Remmelgas, the 2040 climate targets are being adjusted primarily with the energy sector in mind.

"We're proposing to remove the target of carbon-neutral energy production by 2040 from the bill. We recognize that some fossil fuels are still likely to be used in dispatchable power capacity, such as gas-fired plants," she said.

Whether similar adjustments will be made in other sectors beyond energy remains under consideration, she added.

As for 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are now expected to be lower than what the fall draft envisioned.

Specifically, the earlier draft stipulated that emissions in 2030 could not exceed 2022 levels. The current version, which has been shared with stakeholders, sets the cap at 2023 levels.

Since Estonia's carbon emissions dropped 9 percent in 2023 compared with the previous year, this means emissions must also be lower in 2030.

The ministry clarified that this should not be interpreted as a more ambitious target but rather an effort to maintain the current trajectory. In essence, just like in the fall, the ministry is proposing that emissions should not increase over the next five years — but they don't necessarily need to decrease either.

"We're making sure we don't roll back the progress we've already made," Remmelgas explained.

Ten years from now, in 2035, the ministry expects emissions to be roughly the same as outlined in the fall draft.

"In the earlier version, we had accounted for oil shale-based electricity production in 2035, with a sufficient buffer. But the 2040 target was indeed ambitious — it assumed that dispatchable capacity, such as gas or oil shale plants, would also be carbon neutral. We now see that achieving that without putting additional pressure on the sector — and affecting prices as a result — could be quite difficult," Remmelgas said.

Estonia finally presents European Commission with climate and energy plan

Last week, the Estonian government finally approved and submitted its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to the European Commission — nearly a year late. The plan was originally due in July 2023.

In mid-May, Politico reported that, along with Estonia, Belgium, Poland, Croatia and Slovakia had also failed to submit their plans by that point. The European Commission had already begun warning member states that infringement proceedings could follow.

The purpose of the NECP is to show the European Commission how each country intends to meet the EU's agreed climate and energy targets. The Commission uses these plans as one of its primary tools to assess whether the bloc is on track to meet its climate commitments.

While the Commission had requested details from member states on how and by how much they plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future, Estonia's submission contained no such information. Instead, the plan presented to the Commission is a summary of Estonia's actions to date.

According to Laura Remmelgas, the delay in submitting the plan was due to the fact that it could not be finalized until progress had been made on both the Climate Act and the national energy development plan.

"We haven't received feedback from the Commission yet, but we had to accept that the NECP timeline didn't align well with the legislative process for our climate-resilient economy law, so we had to submit the plan based on existing data," said Remmelgas.

For example, the plan submitted to the Commission highlights that Estonia has taken significant steps toward its energy goals. Among these is the objective, agreed upon by the Riigikogu in 2022, that by 2030 Estonia should produce as much renewable electricity as it consumes annually.

However, ERR reported last week that Estonia has begun to quietly move away from that goal. Prime Minister Kristen Michal even acknowledged on the"Esimene stuudio" talk show that the target is no longer considered realistic.

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