This is in the immediate term thanks to Iran having supplied Russia with significant amounts of weaponry including its Shahed loitering munitions since the war began, and which Iran may now require for its own use, and in the longer term, if Israel's strikes led to the end of the current regime in Iran, this would lead to a big change in Russia-Iran relations, Mihkelson went on.

Speaking to "Ukraina Stuudio," Mihkelson said: "Iran has been supplying Russia with large numbers of Shahed drones, missiles, and ballistic rockets since the start of the war."

On the other hand, Russia is not likely to want to get involved in Iran's affairs, he went on.

"Russia is now manufacturing many of the Shaheds itself under Iran's name, and while a strategic agreement was indeed signed in January, as far as I know, Iran's legislature still hadn't ratified it as of a few days ago. Even if it had been ratified and the agreement were in force, I doubt Russia would want to get involved here.

Russia is in fact "trying very hard to portray itself as some kind of peace broker," Mihkelson added.

In Mihkelson's view, the best-case scenario from the perspective of the war in Ukraine would be if Israel succeeded in toppling the Iranian regime, as this, too, would directly affect Russia's relationship with Iran.

"The best possible outcome for this war for Ukraine would be the fall of the Iranian regime. That would significantly alter the geopolitical status quo — not only in the Middle East but also by having a direct and concrete impact on the war in Ukraine.

Overall the conflict in the Middle East is not a major surprise to the world, Mihkelson said.

"Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran, along with Hezbollah and Hamas, has done everything it can to destroy Israel. Understandably, Iran with nuclear weapons would be extremely dangerous for Israel. Over time, Israel has made it clear that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, so in that sense, this development isn't particularly surprising."

Iran's capabilities are actually quite limited, and Israel has clearly worked hard to secure itself militarily, he noted.

While it would be too early to say how extensive the current conflict will become, it "isn't just a series of isolated strikes, nor is Israel only targeting Iran's nuclear sites," adding that a toppling of the regime might be the goal.

"The strikes in recent days that Israel has conducted have been extremely destructive. Really, Iran has been trying to respond, but we can see that their capability, at least for now, is very limited," Mihkelson continued.

Mihkelson added that while Iran can harm Israel, it lacks the strength to halt Israel's well-planned operations, as Israel currently holds air superiority and has already weakened Iran's defenses and Hezbollah.

As for the U.S., Mihkelson said he believes Donald Trump is attempting to resolve the Israel-Iran conflict plus also to avoid U.S. military intervention, despite a tense relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The foreign affairs committee chair says he sees Trump's role as a peacemaker who recognizes the broader global challenges, noting the conflict might even indirectly benefit Ukraine.

From last Friday, June 13, 2025, Israel launched its Operation Rising Lion, striking over a dozen nuclear facilities in Iran.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!