"The Iranian regime has already responded with a massive drone attack, but the main question remains whether they will launch a full-scale war against Israel and, in connection with that, against U.S. interests in the region as well," Mihkelson wrote on social media Friday.

"This decision could put the entire regime's existence at stake, a situation not seen since the Islamic Revolution of 1979," he continued. "That's why it's rather doubtful that Iran has the strength and courage to ignite a major war. Moreover, there are also fears of internal public backlash."

According to Mihkelson, Iran is a close ally of Russia in the major hybrid war launched against the West.

"Of course, Russia benefits from the sharp rise in oil prices, but this can only have a short-term effect," he explained. "It will be interesting to see if Russia does anything to support and defend its ally. This will also reveal the true role of the strategic cooperation agreement signed between Russia and Iran 147 days ago."

The committee chair added that U.S. President Donald Trump, who is eager for a peace prize, also faces a major dilemma.

"Just yesterday, he spoke about the desire to continue diplomatic steps with Iran to achieve a nuclear deal," he pointed out. "The next meeting with Iran's foreign minister was scheduled by Trump's [Middle East special envoy Steve] Witkoff for the day after tomorrow, in Oman. Israel's attack has clearly changed the regional status quo, creating an entirely new environment for further developments — and neither the U.S. nor Trump can remain mere bystanders here."

Saks: More serious counterattacks may come later

Estonian security expert Rainer Saks said that last year's mutual attacks demonstrated that Iran's air defense could not handle Israeli missiles, and its air defense system has been weakened since.

"Thanks to Ukraine's robust efforts, [Iran] has received no new air defense systems from Russia either," Saks noted.

"Iran's supreme religious leader survived the attacks, and has naturally promised retaliation," he said. "It's generally assumed that Iran can organize a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel one way or another. Iran has also carried out extensive influence operations in the Western media to create this perception. Certainly some — perhaps several dozen — missiles will fly toward Israel, but massive air attacks on Israel don't seem likely in the near future."

The security expert explained that if Iran manages to spare some of its air forces and missile units from destruction, and the government manages to hang on to power and bounce back, more serious counterattacks might be expected in the longer term.

"A bigger problem is the numerous groups created or controlled by Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, which could be deployed more effectively to target Israeli and U.S. interests," he said. "It remains to be seen how these groups will react to the news of Iranian army losses."

Saks noted that the U.S. has not participated in the attacks so far, which is a serious point for Iran to consider.

"U.S. involvement in an Israeli attack would lead to the complete destruction of the country's military capability, but ideological regimes are always prone to serious mistakes," he said. "Iran already made a fatal error in 2023, when it launched an attack against Israel."

Israel launched a major attack on Iran early Friday, with strikes that set off explosions in the Iranian capital of Tehran, the Associated Press reported.

Israel said it targeted nuclear and military facilities, while Iranian state media reported the leader of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and two top nuclear scientists were killed.

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