While in the 2010s, Japan sought to improve ties with Russia and secure a peace deal over its disputed islands, since 2022, it has understood that Moscow will not make any territorial concessions, Gaens told ERR News after ICDS' Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum last week.

A "wind of change" blew through the government, he said, prompting a strong reaction. Tokyo joined Europe's sanctions and stressed the importance of the international rule of law in its public relations.

A common understanding of Russia is behind deepening ties between Japan and the Nordics and Baltics, Gaens believes.

"There is this saying that Japan and Finland, or Japan and Estonia, are actually really close to each other because there's only one common neighbor," he said.

Tokyo and Helsinki already have a "very special relationship," and the pair cooperate in the Arctic and within their defense industries. But interest in Estonia and the region is growing.

"There has been quite a shift within Europe from the perspective of Japan's attention," he said. "From the west to the east, before this region was not so much emphasized or looked at."

Japan has become more involved through the Three Seas Initiative, which seeks to develop transportation connections in the region stretching from Greece to Estonia. Gaens said this has been an effort to counterbalance Beijing's influence in Europe.

"You have to keep in mind that for Japan, a lot of foreign policy is about China," he said. "The reason why they focus so much on Ukraine is because they're afraid that the same might happen in their own region over Taiwan."

Military cooperation deepening

Both NATO and Tokyo are also looking to deepen their cooperation. While talks about a NATO office in Japan have not progressed, Japanese military observers were present at Estonia's Siil (Hedgehog) 2025 exercise last month.

Gaens said the relationship between Tokyo and Beijing is "still very delicate."

"There is still a lot of business interests and stable relations are in the interest of both [countries]. All this talk of the NATO presence in the Pacific, a NATO representative office in Tokyo, I think it was shoved aside because of those sensitivities when it comes to China," he said.

It therefore came as a surprise at the end of 2024 when the prime minister said Japan could start thinking about a collective security mechanism like NATO, but for Asia.

"He floated it, but it didn't get very far. The idea was criticized as unrealistic," Gaens said, adding this grouping could include South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines. "Something really radical would need to happen to gather enough political support for that idea."

While tensions in the region are escalating, China has not attacked Taiwan.

Best case scenario

At the moment, the U.S. administration's discussions about a pivot to the Indo-Pacific have not yielded any results. But what would be the best-case scenario for Japan if this happens?

Gaens said this would be Japan seizing the opportunity to become more militarily autonomous and stronger. "That they can take care of their own defense by themselves," he said.

This process started around a decade ago but has been exacerbated since 2022.

"And now the new Trump administration, and whatever its plans are, is also a way for Japan to think [about this] even more," the researcher said. "How can we do even more to take care of ourselves, of our own sovereignty and autonomy?"

There are also discussions about changing the constitution, which currently restricts Japan militarily.  

"There's legal restrictions to what Japan can do and what Japan will actually do? Nobody knows. That will need to be decided on at the highest levels when something like that occurs," he said.

"But there's a big difference between the political elite and the population, who is still very pacifist, who are very averse to nuclear weapons and so on, understandably, because of [their] history," he said.

"But, at least the debate is now there that Japan should become more autonomous."

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!