The newly emerged Koos party, which pursues a pro-Russian line, picked up 3 percent support, however, putting it on a level pegging with coalition party Eesti 200 in the ratings, according to Kantar.

Kantar Emor conducted its July survey on behalf of public broadcaster ERR's newsfloor, covering the period July 11 to 17.

Kaja Kallas's departure a prime minister was already certain by that time, while coalition talks between the Reform Party, Social Democrats (SDE) and Eesti 200, led by prime ministerial candidate Kristen Michal (Reform), were in full swing – with a view to getting a coalition deal signed and the new government, albeit with the same three parties, sworn in this month.

Commenting on the latest survey, Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog said the impact of the new prime minister and government on the three coalition parties' ratings will become more apparent in August, when some fluctuations might start to appear.

"However at present, compared with June, there have been no significant changes which would cause people to change their party preferences," Voog told ERR

By rankings, Isamaa remains firmly in the lead at 28 percent of support.

SDE lies in second place at 17 percent support, followed by the Reform Party in third place, with 16 percent support according to Kantar Emor.

In fourth place is the Center Party at 14 percent support, while the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), which experienced significant internal changes in June, remains in fifth place for the second consecutive month, backed by 13 percent of respondents.

Aivar Voog noted that, depending on the sociodemographic group and particularly ethnicity, support for the Center Party has developed very differently.

Voog told ERR: "Among non-Estonians, the Center Party's support remains strong at 52.2 percent, but among Estonians, it has significantly decreased to 3.6 percent, thanks to the departure of several well-known politicians from the party."

"Non-Estonians" here refers to Russian-speaking voters mainly. Center experienced a wave of defections earlier this year, with Isamaa, Reform and in particular SDE being the beneficiaries.

"These opposing trends have resulted in the Center Party's overall rating remaining more or less the same," Voog added.

In sixth place is Parempoolsed at 5 percent support, a slight decrease compared to June. According to Aivar Voog, this fall is due to their relative inactivity following the European elections.

The party was founded in 2022 and has yet to win Riigikogu or European Parliament seats, though 5 percent is significant in that it is the threshold at and beyond which a party can win seats in any Riigikogu election electoral district.

Eesti 200's rating remains steady at 3 percent, below the threshold noted above. The party has 13 MPs but failed to win an MEP seat at last month's election.

Koos supporters primarily from previously uncommitted voters

Kantar Emor added two new parties to its list of analyzed parties starting from July, namely Koos and the Free Party (Vabaerakond).

While the Free Party didn't make a splash n the overall ratings, Koos received 3 percent support in its first inclusion in the polls, in the context of the Riigikogu elections.

Support for Koos did not affect the Center Party's rating, however, Koos added, even though both parties' supporter bases consist mainly of Russian-speaking citizens.

"It can be seen that among non-Estonians, the proportion of those without a preference or party preference has fallen, indicating that Koos found its supporters among those who previously did not have such party preferences," Voog said

Not only Center but also EKRE have seen a split take place in the first half of 2024.

If and when the breakaway group clustered around former Riigikogu Speaker Henn Põlluaas does register as a new party, the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK), Kantar Emor will include it in the ratings going forward, Voog said.

As for the EKRE rump that remains, Voog noted the party, at one point the third largest by seats and in office April 2019-January 2021, took a significant hit in June, thanks to the high-profile defections.

With the addition of the new party, it will prove very difficult for EKRE to grow beyond its current position, Voog added.

Ratings with "don't know" respondents included

A full 25 percent of respondents were unable to specify their preferences to Kantar Emor in July's survey, a slight rise on June overall.

When taking into consideration the "don't know" respondents as well, 21 percent of those surveyed in June supported Isamaa. SDE polled at 13 percent; the Reform Party hatad 12 percent.

Both the Center Party and EKRE polled 10 percent support via this methodology.

Support for Parempoolsed among unpledged voters fell to 4 percent (down from 7 percent in June), while Eesti 200 picked up just 2 percent support in this demographic, neck-and-neck with Koos.

Looking ahead, Voog said that the only changes likely to occur in the ratings table would consist of fluctuations in the relative support for Reform compared with Isamaa.

"Here is the question: Will the Reform Party be able to restore its support base in the long run?" Voog inquired.

"Isamaa's support base includes many new as well as long-term supporters, with more casual party preferences and less certainty in their choices. This means the balance between the Reform Party and Isamaa may alter. It also depends on the pledges [of the new coalition]," Voog explained.

The overall context, particularly the economic situation and decisions made in this area, will play a significant role in restoring the [new] prime minister's party's rating, he added.

Kantar Emor quizzed 1,512 eligible (18 and over, Estonian citizens) voters across Estonia, both online and over the phone, from July 11 to 17.

With this sample size, the maximum margin of error per party Kantar claims is ±2.2 percent.

The new Reform-Eesti 200-SDE coalition is due to unveil its agreement today, Friday, with the aim of being formally installed in office next week.

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