Isamaa's rating was this week almost double that of the second-placed party, Reform. Coalition partner Eesti 200 was below the threshold required to win seats.

The third opposition party, the Center Party, which had earlier ranked fifth, has now surpassed EKRE in support, according to the poll, conducted by Norstat on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

The three opposition parties together poll at 55.5 percent, compared with 36.3 percent support for the three coalition partners – the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats (SDE), the same survey found.

By party, Isamaa polled at 31 percent in the Norstat survey, conducted on a weekly basis, while Reform picked up 16.6 support, a fraction ahead of SDE at 16.5 percent.

Center polled at 12.7 percent, and EKRE at 11.8 percent.

Non-parliamentary party Parempoolsed at 5.1 percent was just above the 5-percent vote threshold required to win seats at a Riigikogu election, while Eesti 200 fell short of that benchmark, at 3.2 percent.

Isamaa has seen its rating rise by 3.9 percentage points since late May and is at its highest level since Norstat began its surveys in their current format, in early 2019.

EKRE is in the opposite position, and rates lower than at any time since early 2019. The party was recently the subject of a wave of departures, with dissident leading members forming their own new party, yet to be reflected in the ratings.

However, the latest results indicate that this rise is slowing down, Norstat noted.

Reform's trend towards a decline has halted, however, while SDE has enjoyed a 2.3-percentage point rise in support over the past five weeks, bringing it neck-and-neck with Reform as noted.

The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since Norstat began its weekly polls in early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

In recent weeks, the Center Party has somewhat improved its position, overtaking the declining EKRE.

Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks.

A total of 4,002 Estonian citizens of voting age were polled in the period June 10 to July 12.

Voters without a party preference are excluded when calculating the relative support of parties.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to size of a party by support. So for instance Isamaa's margin of error, as the most-supported party according to Norstat, is +/-1.73 percent, compared with +/-0.82 percent for Parempoolsed.

The next elections are to local municipalities, in October 2025.

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