Speaking to ETV's "Hapud kurgid 2026," the commentators concluded that snap elections are unlikely for now, despite tensions within the coalition through the summer.

"If someone here occasionally talks about possible snap elections and things like that, well, they're not coming," said Delfi journalist Vilja Kiisler. The opposition can certainly make life more difficult for a minority government, but it does not want to take on government responsibility itself before the regular elections, Kiisler added.

"We can make your existence so unpleasant, we can slowly fry you on the pan so that the smell of 'burnt squirrel fur' reaches for miles, but they won't do all that because nobody wants to go into government before the elections right now."

ERR Radio's Mirko Ojakivi said a minority government does not necessarily mean bad things for Estonia. "A minority government in itself doesn't mean anything bad, it just means that the government has to work harder in the Riigikogu," Ojakivi said.

Head of News at ERR Joosep Värk highlighted the adoption of the state budget as one important test for the start of the political season. "If the government can get the state budget passed, then they have essentially cleared the bar," Värk said. The state budget process runs through the fall, with an aim to getting it passed at the Riigikogu before year-end.

MPs may want to boost their visibility, even by distancing themselves from their own party

The emergence of a minority government with 50 seats at the 101‑seat Riigikogu was preceded by tensions in the coalition parties over the summer. May's supplementary budget met with criticism from MPs from the governmental Reform Party — Aivar Sõerd, who sits on the Riigikogu's finance committee, and Mart Võrklaev, a former finance minister. Then over the summer, Reform Party member Meelis Kiili and Eesti 200 member Kalev Stoicescu left their respective parties — Stoicescu later joined Parempoolsed. It was these two departures which tipped the coalition below the 51‑seat majority.

According to Värk, internal criticism may also be driven by politicians' desire to secure themselves a mandate at the next Riigikogu elections, by distancing themselves from areas where the party has hit criticism. "It may be that some people no longer have a place in the next Riigikogu and they feel that if previously they have been so‑called loyal coalition voters, then maybe one day it will dawn on them — for, what if there is no place for me in the team going forward," Värk said.

Ojakivi found Reform Party MPs in particular — even with Kiili's departure there are still 38 of these at the Riigikogu — want to boost their visibility. "When there are three readings like this, only the first ones make it into the next parliament, and the other two can just stand up and leave," Ojakivi said.

Disagreements over cuts

Splits between Reform and Eesti 200 on cuts are also related to the upcoming elections, according to the show's guests.

"I think these are actually just messages to their voters. They want to telegraph what their messages will be at the next elections," Värk said.

Ojakivi found while sharp confrontation may bring attention to politicians, it is unclear how amenable the in‑fighting is to the voters. "The voter is getting tired of all this. The voter will still expect a better life, somehow some more positive messages. You probably won't get famous with this kind of scandal and squabbling," Ojakivi said.

"Hapud kurgid 2026" will in its upcoming season examine other major summer news topics including the presidential election process, the issue of illegal migration and the rental of cell space at Tartu Prison to Swedish authorities, who are rehousing inmates there.

The Reform-Eesti 200 coalition lost its majority at the Riigikogu earlier in the summer and now has 50 seats at the 101‑seat chamber. The opposition Isamaa, Center and EKRE have called for snap elections and a vote of no confidence in the government, ahead of the March 2027 Riigikogu election.

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