Ain Hanschmidt: The economy's glass is half full

Not long ago it seemed that the economic downturn and high cost of living had no intention of easing, and that the most painful and bleak records in the economy would soon be set. Now, fresh statistics inject a measure of optimism, writes Ain Hanschmidt in a commentary originally published in the Employers' Manifesto 2026.
The economy grew faster in the first half of 2026 than the euro area average, inflation is calming, and investors have become more confident than before — they are no longer quick to sell their businesses and leave. For the first time in a long while, dialogue has re‑emerged between the government and entrepreneurs.
Thus, several proposals formulated four years ago in the Estonian Employers' Confederation manifesto have already been implemented or are in the process of being implemented.
For example, the state is rapidly reducing bureaucracy that suffocates entrepreneurship; the shortage of workers with necessary skills is being eased by more flexible employment relationships and simpler hiring of foreign workers. There is now a responsible party for ensuring a competitive electricity price — crucial for business — and the state has accelerated planning procedures. These are critically important and commendable changes for economic development.
It is equally true that government spending continues to grow faster than the economy. There is no alternative: the state must bring its expenditures under control as quickly as possible and declare a period of tax peace — no new taxes or increases in the tax burden for the next four years. Tax hikes made during a shrinking economy produced the opposite result: they raised prices and reduced the competitiveness of our companies.
We need a longer view and greater ambition: Estonia's economic policy must be as bold, radical, and pragmatic as it was in the 1990s. Fine‑tuning will not take us forward, and in recent years we have lost much of the success and competitive advantages we once gained.
The state's long‑term strategy Estonia 2035 sets the goal of raising productivity to 110 percent of the EU average. As employers, we support this, because Estonia's future success depends on productivity growth. But to achieve this goal, we must begin developing twice as fast — what has been done so far, and simply continuing it, will not get us there. We must set a clear target and begin working toward it both in business and in government, and cooperate effectively.
At the same time, we must improve our position in the international investor community. It may sound unbelievable, but for investors Estonia still sits in the lowest category — a frontier market. This means that a large share of global investment capital never reaches us.
Although the country's credit rating is good — A+ — our aim must be the highest rating, AAA, and a place among developed markets. This sends a signal that it is safe to operate here long‑term, makes borrowing cheaper for companies and individuals, and as the economy grows, wages rise as well.
These issues are not merely economic questions, because only a successful, growing, and competitive economic environment can fulfill the main purpose of the Constitution — to ensure the preservation of the Estonian nation, language, and culture.
Eighty‑five percent of the state's revenues come from consumption and labor taxes. The collection of these taxes into the state budget depends on how high the wages paid by Estonian companies can be. That, in turn, depends on how competitive our companies and economic environment are.
On 7 March 2027, Estonians will again elect members of parliament whose choices and decisions will determine our future success. Leaders who will bear responsibility for setting direction and driving bold change.
We expect the newly mandated politicians to answer questions such as: What is the plan for fixing the state's finances? How will we solve the labor shortage crisis in a society with an aging and shrinking working‑age population? How can we turn educational knowledge into business competitiveness? How can we fund healthcare in a way that is affordable for society and increases healthy life years? How can we support companies' innovation leap? And what conditions can we offer in Estonia to create a competitive environment that drives economic growth?
The Employers' Manifesto helps answer these questions through the views of Estonia's top economic leaders and specialists, outlining not only the challenges ahead but also a set of solutions and proposals.
Their goal is singular: to improve the well‑being of Estonian people through a better economic environment.
Decisive choices lie ahead, and action must be taken with statesmanship. The Employers' Confederation is ready for this — in both words and deeds.
We await a new government and parliament that understand the importance of the decisions to be made in the coming years and are ready to take responsibility for putting Estonia's economy and people's well‑being on a firm path of growth. Employers stand ready for cooperation and joint effort.
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Editor: Kaupo Meiel, Argo Ideon











