Ministry forecasts Estonia's inflation to fall in 2026
In its June inflation review, the Ministry of Finance said that as the conflict in the Middle East eases, inflation in Estonia this year could come in below the 4 percent forecast issued this spring.
According to Statistics Estonia, prices fell 0.5 percent in June compared with the previous month, while annual inflation slowed from 3.7 percent in May to 2.3 percent in June. Across the eurozone, annual inflation slowed to an estimated 2.8 percent.
Kristjan Pungas, an analyst in the Ministry of Finance's fiscal policy department, said Estonia's inflation rate was among the lowest in the eurozone in June and that food prices declined both month over month and year over year.
"As the conflict in the Middle East eases, the Ministry of Finance expects this year's inflation to come in below the 4 percent forecast in its spring economic outlook," Pungas said.
The Ministry of Finance's spring forecast projected inflation of 4 percent this year, while the Bank of Estonia's spring forecast put it at 3.8 percent. The ministry's forecast issued last summer projected this year's inflation at 3.5 percent.
The Ministry of Finance will present its summer economic forecast on August 27. The forecast will serve as the basis for drafting next year's state budget.
Inflation in Estonia was 4.8 percent last year.
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Marcus Turovski
