Meanwhile, the Central European heat wave is not affecting Estonia's grain harvest and has not yet shown up on store shelves, experts say. This year's crop is expected to be above average.

In northern Estonia, grain fields are still green; in the south, they are already yellow. But Estonia is not experiencing a heat wave. How will Europe's extreme heat affect the grain market?

"Any kind of panic causes market fluctuations, and a heat wave is definitely one of those panic triggers. Plants don't like it — they don't want to grow in such heat," said Margus Ameerikas, development director at Baltic Agro.

"A few summers ago we thought the grain was basically in the barn already, everything looked good. Only the ripening period was left. Then a major heat wave hit and cut yields. The same could happen in Europe," said Tarmo Timmi, CEO of Jaagumäe Farm.

But Europe's heat could raise grain prices, growers hope.

"If panic drives prices up, it might actually benefit our farmers. If someone somewhere has a bad year, someone else may gain from it," Ameerikas said.

Fertilizer prices may push farmers away from sowing grain

Ameerikas added that there is no reason to expect crop failure or food shortages. Europe began harvesting before the heat wave arrived. There is no grain shortage — war‑torn Ukraine exports six million tons a month; for comparison, Estonia's annual production is 1.5 million tons, two‑thirds of which is exported. And this year's harvest looks good.

"Since we've shifted from spring grains to winter grains, winter crops grow much better — they get moisture in autumn and survive the winter. This winter almost everything survived; there was only minor damage. The harvest should be above average," Ameerikas said.

The problem is high fuel, energy and fertilizer prices — and that was known even before the heat wave. How much energy will drying require?

"That's a major factor, and it increasingly affects grain growers in Southeast Estonia and other peripheral regions. In an energy‑crisis context, transport costs — which we must cover ourselves — are also rising," Timmi said.

There are no combines yet on Estonian fields, but harvesting will begin in some areas in a week or two, the grain grower said.

LHV macro‑analyst Triinu Tapver said the current heat is not reflected in store prices. But if scorching heat becomes normal and heat periods lengthen, it will.

"How would we see the impact? Two main ways: through higher energy prices, meaning people in Central Europe consume more energy and food storage becomes more expensive. And secondly, through food raw materials themselves — crops may be smaller," Tapver said.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!