Let's start with the drone incident in Romania where a Russian drone struck a residential building. What do we know about it? Is it certain that it was a Russian drone and how did it end up in Romania?

Not all the facts are known yet. The incident took place during the night of May 29. It was a Russian drone. The Russian presidential administration has denied that, but the rest of the world knows it was a Russian drone. At the moment, the most likely explanation appears to be that it was targeting Odesa or sites near the city and was either physically hit by air defense systems or affected by electronic countermeasures, causing it to veer off course. That currently seems to be the most plausible scenario and that is how it ended up in Romania, in a port town on the Danube relatively close to the border.

In a sense, this is not particularly unusual since similar incidents have happened before, with drones or drone debris crossing borders. The difference this time is that it hit a residential building and people were injured.

That's true, and there are many possible explanations. For the past 40 years, the Western defense industry has focused on producing very high-quality systems that work in 99.99 percent of cases. The problem is that they are extremely expensive and produced in very small numbers. The war in Ukraine has shifted the cycle in the opposite direction: systems need to be produced on a massive scale and at the lowest possible cost. Russia is also trying to make things as cheaply as possible. Self-destruct mechanisms and similar features would simply drive up the cost. They do not factor such considerations into their risk calculations in the same way we do in the West.

Speaking of expensive and highly specialized equipment, let's talk about the aircraft the Swedes have promised to Ukraine. Last Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson agreed that Sweden would donate JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, with an option for Ukraine to purchase additional aircraft later. What exactly are the Gripens? How modern and capable are they and what can they be used for?

The Gripen is an aircraft that has proven itself in peacetime conditions in the Nordic countries. The Czech Republic has operated them, as have the Swedes themselves, and they are also used elsewhere around the world. They have not seen a great deal of combat, but the general consensus is that they are very good aircraft and robust in the best sense of the word. They are not particularly demanding when it comes to maintenance or runway requirements. They can operate from caves and highways, which is how the Swedes use them.

They will certainly be a valuable addition for Ukraine, but it is important to keep the timeline in mind. We are talking about the first aircraft arriving in roughly 10 months. There is currently discussion of peace negotiations, which means they may never see combat at all. For now, however, we have to proceed on the assumption that the war will continue and that Ukraine must win it. This is an encouraging signal that Europe and the wider world remain firmly committed to supporting Ukraine.

What kind of armament do these aircraft carry? Sweden is expected to provide the Gripen C and D variants. What capabilities do they have? Can they be used to shoot down other aircraft and missiles or are they also effective against ground targets?

The Gripen is a multirole fighter with both air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities. It can carry and employ both European and American weapons systems. There has been discussion that the aircraft will be delivered with the Meteor missile, the newest European-made missile, which, according to publicly available information, has a range of around 200 kilometers.

If it reaches the battlefield, it should have a significant impact by pushing Russian bombers even farther away from the front line. This would be done in coordination with the Saab 340 airborne early warning and control aircraft that Sweden is also donating. The radars on the older-generation Gripens, which will be the first to arrive, can only detect targets at distances of about 100 to 120 kilometers. They therefore need targets to be identified and tracked by the airborne radar aircraft, after which the fighter can launch its long-range missile.

How does it compare with the F-16s that Ukraine already operates? Is it better, worse, fundamentally different or actually fairly similar?

Broadly speaking, it is fairly similar. Together with the Meteor missile and its range, it could bring a meaningful change. Otherwise, it does not represent a major qualitative or quantitative leap forward. The differences are mostly in the details. It is often claimed that the Gripen is more resilient in an electronic warfare environment, but again, there is a lack of real combat data. It is difficult to say for certain. I think experts around the world will be watching with great interest.

If the Swedes provide the aircraft together with Meteor missiles, what would their primary targets be and how might the Ukrainians use them?

The Meteor is an air-to-air missile with a range of around 200 kilometers. It would push back the Su-34 bombers that currently release their glide bombs from distances of roughly 60 to 80 kilometers behind the front line. The Ukrainians have found a partial countermeasure to this by using electronic warfare systems to protect frontline positions, making the bombs miss their targets by a few hundred meters.

However, when the Russians target cities, that level of inaccuracy does not matter much — something is still likely to be hit. In that sense, it would be a positive development if Ukrainian aircraft could shoot down those bombers from a distance, without having to cross the front line and expose themselves to danger.

Ukraine's air fleet is becoming quite diverse, especially when future deliveries are taken into account. It includes F-16s, Soviet-era aircraft and now French Mirages as well. How difficult is it to manage such a mixed fleet, both from a logistical and technical standpoint, including training personnel?

I looked up the figures. Ukraine began the war with roughly 100 to 120 operational fighter aircraft and Russia has shot down around 100 to 110 of them. Yet Ukraine still has approximately 100 to 120 operational Soviet-designed aircraft in service.

They have performed a remarkable feat by pulling derelict aircraft out of their aircraft graveyards and restoring them. They have also managed to acquire various spare parts through donations and get these aircraft flying again. Aviation safety officers in peacetime countries would probably be horrified by some of this. Under normal circumstances, such aircraft would not be allowed to fly, but in wartime those risks have to be accepted. People's lives are already at risk, so the aircraft have to be put into service.

They have accomplished something extraordinary and I have no doubt they will also manage to operate three different types of Western aircraft alongside everything else. It is certainly a challenge, but not one that I think particularly worries them.

Looking briefly at the other side of the front line, the Russian Air Force has also taken a fair amount of punishment. Ukraine has shot down aircraft and struck airfields. What is the overall situation and how capable does the Russian Air Force appear to be at this point?

There is no doubt that the wear and tear on their aircraft, as well as the number of flight hours they have had to put in, has become quite significant. Russia's aviation industry is not particularly capable of sustaining itself without access to Western spare parts and machine tools. Their fleet has experienced substantial attrition, although precise figures are not available.

Russia entered the war with a clear objective and plan to achieve air superiority quickly, but it failed to do so and has not been able to achieve it at any point during the conflict. Now that Western aircraft are operating over Ukraine, it certainly will not achieve that goal. So overall, the Russian Air Force has performed below its own expectations.

Looking a bit further ahead, once the Gripens are in service, will that mean Ukraine is moving toward air superiority?

I do not see either side achieving air superiority in the traditional sense of the term, meaning complete freedom of action in the air. However, the situation will improve for Ukraine once the Gripens begin operating because they will be able to push Russian aircraft even farther away from the front line.

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