Experts: Russians fear a Ukrainian drone attack during the May 9 parade
Fearing Ukrainian drone strikes live on television, Russia will exclude military hardware and cadets from its May 9 Victory Day parade on Moscow's Red Square, experts say.
However, pro-Putin military bloggers may not approve of the absence of hardware from the parade — or how it is presented.
In recent years, there has been less and less military hardware at Moscow's Victory Day parade on May 9. It is expensive: rehearsals near Moscow involve fuel costs, travel allowances, and even shutting down trolleybus lines to allow missile carriers to move through the city, experts from Russia say.
But this year another reason has been added: Ukrainian drone strikes now reach deep into Russian territory. What if explosions were heard during the live broadcast of the parade?
"Putin asks, 'Can you guarantee this to me 100 percent?' They say, 'No.' 'Do we have enough combat equipment?' They tell him no, because the Taman and Kantemirov divisions are fighting in Ukraine. 'So what do we show? Those old tanks again?'" said political analyst Sergei Kovalchenko.
"If a strike hits a large amount of equipment live on air, it would affect public opinion differently than the Kremlin expects," said Igor Gretski, a researcher at Estonian defense think-tank ICDS.
Muscovites themselves are even happy — there will be no parade-related traffic nightmare — but last year 36 million people watched the parade on television. They will certainly be disappointed not to see the equipment. That disappointment will become loud online after the parade.
"For people who like watching such grandiose parades, for the Z community, this is simply a failure. Those Z figures will definitely write, 'What's going on — we can't even organize a parade in the capital, Moscow!'" Kovalchenko said.
"Peskov and his press service, the talking heads, and bloggers will certainly say that all of this equipment is needed for combat operations in Ukraine, not for a parade," Gretski said.
Vladimir Yushkin, director of the Baltic Center for Russian Studies, said that military hardware is the climax of the parade. But the real war in Ukraine does not match the spectacle. Showing equipment that is not achieving success in Donbas only angers pro-Putin Z loyalists.
"He has to wriggle his way out. How do you package this war so that at least someone will take it as some kind of victory? That's why, I think, he didn't dare take that step," Yushkin said.
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Editor: Johanna Alvin, Argo Ideon
Source: ERR "Aktuaalne kaamera"
