An analysis completed in spring 2023 by the University of Tartu's Center for Migration and Urban Studies projected that Tallinn's population growth in the near future would be driven primarily by foreign migration. Under the most likely scenario, the forecast showed that the capital would have about 90,000 more residents in 25 years than in 2023.

However, a new study completed this February by the University of Tartu, titled "Overview of the Base Scenario of Tallinn's Population Forecast 2026–2050," predicts significantly more modest growth. Until 2035, the capital's population is expected to increase by an average of 620 people per year and by 1,070 people annually thereafter. This would mean an increase of about 6,200 residents by 2035 — from the current roughly 457,000 to about 463,000 — and a population just under 480,000 by mid-century.

The base scenario assumes that migration will remain at the average level of the past decade excluding the more significant impacts of recent crises, that the number of births will initially decline before rising somewhat and that life expectancy will increase. The study did not take into account the potential volume of housing construction.

The city commissioned the new forecast after actual population figures for 2025 showed significantly fewer births and young children than the 2023 projection had indicated, while the number of people in their 20s was somewhat higher.

According to the new forecast, the number of children in Tallinn will decline until 2033, after which it will rise again. By 2050, the number of children aged 0 to 9 is expected to return to its 2025 level. Over the next couple of decades, population figures in other age groups will also fluctuate. What is clear, however, is that the share of older residents will grow: while those aged 60 and over will make up exactly one-quarter of Tallinn's population in 2025 and 2035, their share is projected to increase to 31 percent by 2050. The proportion of residents under 19 will fall from the current one-fifth to 16 percent by 2035 and remain at that level through mid-century.

Population to shrink in Lasnamäe and Nõmme, grow in Kesklinn and Haabersti

According to the University of Tartu forecast, population decline is expected in Lasnamäe and Nõmme. Over the next decade, Nõmme's population is projected to fall by 8 percent and Lasnamäe's by 6 percent. By 2050, the decline will be considerably steeper: Nõmme is expected to have 19 percent fewer residents than in 2025 and Lasnamäe 15 percent fewer. In Lasnamäe's case, that would mean a drop of nearly 20,000 people.

The decrease in the number of young people will be particularly sharp in Lasnamäe and Nõmme. By mid-century, both districts are expected to have one-third fewer residents under 19 than they do today.

The number of young people is also projected to decline significantly over the next decade in Mustamäe, Pirita and Põhja-Tallinn — by about 20 percent, according to the forecast.

The fastest population growth is expected in Kesklinn and Haabersti, projected at 10 percent by 2035 and 27 percent by 2050. In Kesklinn's case, this would move it into second place among Tallinn's districts by population, behind Lasnamäe.

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