Over the past five years, Estonia has emitted significantly more greenhouse gases in the forestry and land-use (LULUCF) sector than allowed under its agreed climate target, according to projections by the Environment Agency.

On Monday, ERR reported that the Ministry of Climate hopes to reduce the shortfall as much as possible through technical talks and methodological improvements. Ministry officials said this could mean that, in the end, no shortfall emerges at all.

Climate scientist Annela Anger-Kraavi said it is nonetheless unlikely Estonia will avoid a deficit. She told ERR that the European Commission's November report shows that, based on the first three years, the European Union as a whole is falling short of its climate target. That would make it significantly harder for Estonia to cover its own shortfall.

"Personally, based on the data currently available, I think it probably will not reach zero," Anger-Kraavi said. "The European Commission could make adjustments, but that would require a corresponding proposal to account for natural disturbances, such as storms, forest fires or disease. At the moment, we can see there are also countries performing better than initially forecast and are on the carbon sequestration side in forestry and land use, such as Italy, Romania or Poland. They would have units to sell to other member states, despite the fact that across the European Union as a whole there is a 52 million-ton shortfall," she explained.

The years 2021–2025, during which Estonia and other member states were required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in forestry and land use, have now passed.

However, it remains unclear whether and how much this will cost the Estonian state; that will become clear only next year or the year after.

This creates a situation in which policymakers find it difficult to make long-term budget decisions.

"When we negotiated this regulation with member states in 2021 and 2022, several of them raised the same question: How can you make policy if you only find out the results two years later? How can you plan anything at all if there is constant uncertainty? This is written into the regulation — you do not know until you have the final figures, which is actually very complicated for all member states," Anger-Kraavi said.

According to Anger-Kraavi, Estonia should already be considering from which countries it might purchase missing greenhouse gas emission units in two years' time. She said it would be wise to conclude preliminary purchase agreements in advance.

"It would also make sense to speak with those who are very likely to have surplus greenhouse gas units. Go and talk to them, see whether they would be willing to sell. Considering that Germany is also facing a very large shortfall, Germany is most likely already in talks with them," Anger-Kraavi said.

The European Commission published its most recent comprehensive review of progress toward the first forestry and land-use climate target in November. It found that, in addition to Estonia, 10 other member states are struggling to meet the target, with Germany, Finland and Portugal potentially facing the highest costs.

At the same time, according to the Commission, 16 member states are on track to meet the forestry and land-use target based on the first three years. Countries that could financially benefit from the climate target, according to Commission data, include Spain, Italy, Romania, the Netherlands and Poland.

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