While Karis himself has said he would not be seeking a second term, in order to get anyone elected as president – which does not involve direct elections but in the first instance ballots at the Riigikogu – a majority of two-thirds at the 101-seat legislature is needed.

This means parties must agree on a candidate just months before Riigikogu elections take place in March 2027.

Center, and to varying extents Reform, the Social Democrats and Isamaa, say a second Karis term might be viable. The presidential election process will start in August.

"The current president mostly resonates with the greater part of our people, and I think he is on the right track, so we, the current composition of the Riigikogu, could support him," said Center's faction chair Lauri Laats.

As for Isamaa, its leader, Urmas Reinsalu, was less unequivocal, though did not oppose Karis' continuation into a second term.

"Isamaa does not rule out Alar Karis continuing, and although he has faced attacks from the government here for domestic political reasons, the head of state currently has a reserve of public trust," Reinsalu said.

The coalition Reform Party does not rule out Karis' candidacy either, though says it will take time before candidates' names are decided.

"Before we even get there, there are shared principles — what criteria define the kind of president each party wants to see and how to reach consensus on that. That is our cooperation and shared responsibility here," said Reform's faction chair Õnne Pillak.

The opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) has taken a similar line to Reform. Party chairman Lauri Läänemets said agreements will be influenced by the political situation before the election.

"Whether we have this government, whether it has a majority or not, where people from Eesti 200 have moved — that will determine what agreements can be made and between which parties," Läänemets said.

Eesti 200 is in office with Reform but has been consistently polling at around 2 percent. At the same time, the President of the Riigikogu – the speaker – Lauri Hussar, is from Eesti 200.

The opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) opposes a second term for Karis, as it had done when he was elected in 2021, the party's chair, Martin Helme, said.

"We did not support Karis's candidacy last time either, and although Karis has recently made some statements that may have caused a stir, his five-year term is one that I view critically," Helme said.

An extended Riigikogu elders' meeting is taking place Thursday morning to discuss the process of the presidential election starting in August. The Riigikogu council of elders consists of the speaker and the two deputy speakers, plus the leaders of each of the six party factions.

Speaker Hussar said the schedule will be approved and discussions will be held on how a possible joint candidate might be selected. Several names are reportedly in circulation.

On Wednesday, the Riigikogu revised presidential election rules, which require nominations to be handed in a week earlier than before, and a pre-election speech by those proposing a candidate. This would, proponents say, make the election process clearer.

"This ten-minute speech is certainly important to ensure that the presidential election process is more transparent and that the candidate's positions are once again articulated before the electing body. This concerns both the Riigikogu and the electoral college," Hussar said.

Center voted against the bill, while EKRE abstained. However, the bill passed with 64 votes in favor, meaning the above changes will enter into force.

Alar Karis was elected unopposed after two ballots at the Riigikogu in August 2021. By contrast, the election which saw Kersti Kaljulaid installed as president in 2016 was much more drawn out. No unifying candidate was found at the initial Riigikogu ballots, nor at the regional electoral college, which is the next phase if the Riigikogu does not vote for a president. Ultimately, the council of elders voted for Kaljulaid.

Karis' recent comments on Ukraine hit controversy, with pushback mostly driven by Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200).

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