"The number of attacks typically drops a bit in winter each year, but we cannot say that the cold gives a clear advantage to either side. It hinders the movement of aircraft: drone batteries do not last as long, helicopters freeze, and airplanes require de-icing," Liias said on Sunday evening's "Ukraine Studio." 

"At the same time, the ground holds better. Logistics are easier, and offensive weapons can be used more effectively by the Russian Federation. In terms of infantry, Ukrainian fighters are in prepared battle positions with slightly more comfort. But the attacking Russian soldier infiltrates unprepared terrain and must wait in the cold for days in the same clothing until support arrives," Liias explained.

Cold also affects different types of weapons and military equipment, he added, highlighting recent footage shot by "Aktuaalne kaamera" in Ukraine, which shows artillery pieces malfunctioning due to the weather conditions.

Small infiltrations

Speaking about the front line and combat activity, Liias said that starting from this Thursday, the number of combat contacts has risen significantly, with the hottest spot being Pokrovsk and its surroundings. Attacks are also underway toward Hulyaipole, as well as toward Lyman, Vovchansk, and Kupiansk.

Russian forces are trying to infiltrate Ukrainian territory in groups of up to six, he told the show: "Small units are slipping in, two, three, up to six men. If equipment is available – motorcycles, ATVs, UGVs, or the UAZ vehicles we are familiar with that have had their roofs cut off – they use those to cross the gray zone quickly. If there is no equipment, they infiltrate on foot through wooded areas, backpacks on."

The dominance of drones makes movement difficult, but weak points are still being sought.

"If there are around 10 drones per square kilometer in the air, most of them are surveillance drones. Bombers and FPV drones have shorter flight times due to load. Surveillance drones monitor the area and try to guide bombers to destroy the infiltrators. After dropping the bomb, the drone must return to base to be replaced by a new bomber, but by then, a new group has already entered the battlefield. In this way, the area is flooded with small groups trying to gain a foothold in settlements," said Liias.

Drones changing battlefield

He also discussed how drones have changed the battlefield.

"Doctrinally, a brigade command post could be three to four kilometers behind the front line, but now it has moved much farther back. Artillery cannot go too far because of range, but whereas they used to be four to six kilometers from the front, now we see them at the edge of their maximum range, about 10 to 12 kilometers behind. They barely manage to cover their unit positions," Liias said.

As a result, it is no longer possible to concentrate armored units covertly or to bring a large amount of concentrated armor for a breakthrough.

"Those days are over in the conventional sense. It's only possible if favorable conditions are created, if the battlefield can be blinded through electronic warfare or air defense, and superiority is achieved with interceptor drones," the major said.

Low-cost Molnia drones

Speaking about the Russian Molnia drone, Liias said it is causing headaches for the Ukrainians because of its low cost.

"Molnia testing began at the end of 2024. It fills the gap between short-range and long-range drones. While large drones like the Geran-2 fly far and carry large warheads, they're not precise enough for targeting bunkers or armored vehicles. Molnia is a medium-range platform that fills this gap. The Lancet also exists, but it costs around $35,000. Molnia costs only $300–350 depending on the type. That price difference is crucial. It is a robust tool: two aluminum tubes with a wing and tail set and an electric motor attached. The warhead can be selected," said Liias.

The Molnia must either be shot down or countered with electronic warfare, he added.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!