Security expert: Is Germany Russia's next target?
While the German media has often lent into the narrative that Estonia and the Baltic states could be Russia's next target, the danger could be closer to home, argues security expert Erkki Koort in the Baltic Sentinel.
"Why Germany is next? Because Germany pursued a policy of soft accommodation toward Russia for decades, [and] change is slow to materialize," he writes.
Among his reasoning is that Germany is a deeply politically divided country with a large Russian minority, especially in the east, who are sympathetic to Moscow; "the Bundeswehr is still far from being a highly combat-capable force"; and "in a speech to parliament in October 2025, the head of Germany's intelligence service, the BND, stated that Germany is Russia's number-one target in Europe."
Today, Germany also sees itself as a logistics hub rather than a frontline state, but this does not rule out danger, he says: "Russian planners also know that neutralizing a key European country and military rear area is far more effective than causing trouble on the periphery while allowing a logistics hub to concentrate forces."
Koort also argues that Russia seizing Germany's Baltic island Rügen "would have a far greater impact" than taking Estonian territory and "would plunge the country into internal chaos."
Read the full article HERE in English in the Baltic Sentinel.
Erkki Koort is a former deputy secretary general for internal security at the Ministry of Interior and head of the Internal Security Institute at the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences.
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Editor: Helen Wright
