Jaanus Karilaid: Estonia's birth rate crisis not an abstract problem

Estonia is facing a demographic crisis that, given our scale, is more dangerous than in most European countries. Among other things, this means that public trust in the state has fallen to a historic low. If we want to increase the birth rate, we must confront the root causes of the crisis, writes Jaanus Karilaid.
One might find some comfort in the fact that Estonia is not alone in facing this problem — record-low birth rates are also troubling the Czech Republic, Finland, Poland, Italy, Spain and several other European countries.
In theory, Estonia's parental benefit system is generous and should provide a sense of security for starting a family. In practice, it's not enough. And in a country of just one million people, there is no so-called buffer zone. Every child not born here doesn't just represent a statistical anomaly — it has a direct impact on the labor force, on regional balance and ultimately on the sustainability and vitality of the state itself.
Cutting family benefits immediately after raising them was the height of cynicism. Having a child isn't merely a financial decision. It's a matter of trust: Do I trust my co-parent, the state and the future enough to bring a new life into this world and take responsibility for it for at least 18 years?
Housing problem crucial but underestimated
When taking a closer look at countries with low birth rates, common patterns begin to emerge. One key issue is housing for young people. Studies by the OECD and Eurostat consistently show that housing affordability is strongly linked to both the timing of starting a family and the number of children people have. The more expensive and uncertain it is to enter the housing market, the later the first child is born and that child often ends up being the only one.
Across Europe, young adults are living with their parents longer than ever. Real estate prices are rising faster than wages, loan conditions are tightening and rental agreements are unstable. Access to housing is therefore not a matter of comfort or lifestyle — it is part of a country's demographic infrastructure.
Young people must be able to start an independent life even if they don't have well-off parents to co-sign a mortgage. The state should play a much stronger role in developing long-term, stable rental solutions, whether through municipal housing or partnerships with the private sector. An affordable home is a prerequisite for a young person to feel confident enough to plan their future.
Neglectful fathers must be made to feel the pain
Another major reason people hesitate to have children is the fear of being left alone. The old saying that a woman should only have as many children as she can support by herself, unfortunately, still holds true in Estonia.
The media frequently highlights cases — mostly involving fathers — who conceal their true income, forcing mothers to chase support payments through the courts. This is not normal. A parent should not have to play detective; the state must step in and take control.
Child support is not a handout to an ex-partner to maintain their lifestyle, as those in arrears often try to frame it. It is a legal right of the minor child. It should not be negotiable. Arguments like "I can't afford it myself" or "What about my new family?" cannot outweigh the rights of the child.
Responsibility for a minor child should be as unavoidable as death and taxes. If the state can enforce the latter two with a heavy hand, it can do the same with child support.
Estonia's parental benefits may be generous, but a parent thinks beyond the first three years. They wonder whether they'll have a job to return to after parental leave and whether their child will get a spot in preschool. Where will the child go after school ends, when the workday is still ongoing?
That "someone who is always available" is, more often than not, the mother. That's why the chronic underfunding of extracurricular education is short-sighted. It's not a luxury — it's a prerequisite for balancing work and family life. A functioning system of extracurricular activities reduces parental stress and supports the decision to have more than one child.
We should not mock organizations and politicians who are analyzing the reasons behind the low birth rate, nor should we dismiss their efforts as attempts to turn women into "baby machines." On the contrary, a woman must feel that her career and economic independence will not vanish the moment she becomes a mother.
Right now, Estonia's system still leans toward placing most of the responsibility for child well-being on mothers. If we want to raise the birth rate, we must end the culture wars and focus on cooperation. As long as political energy is spent on empty posturing and culture wars manufactured through brute political force, the birth rate will remain low.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski








