In addition to Estonia acquiring IRIS-T medium-range air defense systems from Germany, it has been known since last spring that the country also plans to procure long-range air defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.

Such a system would be used to protect strategic targets, the destruction of which could significantly impair the capabilities of both Estonia and its allies. These targets might include airfields, ports, defense command centers or railway junctions.

The Estonian Center for Defense Investments is currently finalizing the market research necessary for the acquisition of ballistic missile defense systems. This means all potential manufacturers have been contacted and provided with detailed information about Estonia's specific requirements.

"In our request for information, we've outlined Estonia's needs and goals — what kinds of objects and areas we want to protect and against what kinds of threats. Each company approaches the task as it sees fit. The response should include a detailed configuration proposal: how many launchers and which components would be included. Delivery timelines are also specified," Sander Suik, acting head of the air defense and aviation category at the Center for Defense Investments (RKIK), told ERR.

By the end of March, a comprehensive market overview based on feedback from the manufacturers will be presented to the Ministry of Defense and the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF). That analysis will serve as the basis for deciding how to proceed with the potential procurement.

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) noted that the market situation is changing monthly, especially as countries like Ukraine have a high demand for such systems.

"The sooner we receive this market analysis, the more informed our decision will be — whether we move forward with ballistic missile defense and on what timeline," Pevkur told ERR.

Under or over a billion

According to Minister Pevkur, a decision on the scale of Estonia's ballistic missile defense procurement could be made as early as April or May.

If Estonia were to establish only a basic capability, the cost would be in the hundreds of millions of euros. However, acquiring a larger number of missiles and additional equipment would raise the investment into the billion-euro range.

"The gap between the minimum and maximum programs could truly reach hundreds of millions. It depends heavily on how many missiles we purchase, what kind of maintenance agreement we get and many other factors, including how many batteries we decide to procure," the minister said.

Pevkur noted that the state has specific budget figures included in its planning, but those cannot be disclosed. "I don't want to give any vendor a misleading signal about what price they might be able to quote us," he said.

The decision will not be based solely on acquisition costs but also on the total lifecycle cost of the system. This means factors like staffing, training and long-term maintenance will also be taken into account.

The potential systems still under consideration include the U.S.-made Patriot, Israel's David's Sling and the Franco-Italian SAMP/T.

Other manufacturers are also listed in the evaluation process, but their identities have not been made public.

"At this stage, all proposals and companies are being evaluated equally. We haven't ruled anyone out or given anyone preferential treatment. We're treating them all as equally viable future partners," Suik said.

Deliveries early next decade

Once the Ministry of Defense decides this spring on the scope of Estonia's ballistic missile defense procurement, the Center for Defense Investments will begin detailed contract negotiations with manufacturers.

Sander Suik said it is very difficult to estimate when a contract might be signed. However, the goal is to conclude the deal as quickly as possible.

Once the procurement contract is in place, it will still take several years for the air defense batteries to arrive in Estonia.

"The companies we've worked with have indicated that it will take approximately three to five years from the time the contract is signed to reach operational capability. That's the timeline we're currently working with," Suik said.

This means that the new missile shield would realistically begin intercepting hostile missiles over Estonia sometime in the early 2030s.

"That's just an estimate and also depends on the companies involved. There are no guarantees, as it also hinges on the defense industry market and global developments," Suik added.

€24 billion toward defense over a decade

Hanno Pevkur said the state plans to finance the acquisition of ballistic missile defense on the same basis as other key defense capabilities. He noted that whether the system is funded solely by Estonian taxpayers or partly through mechanisms like a European joint loan is a secondary issue at this stage.

"We know and are working on the assumption that we can plan military capability development within a framework of over 5 percent of GDP. This project has to fit within that. Where the money comes from — whether it's from Estonian taxpayers, loans or a European joint loan mechanism — is secondary at this point because it doesn't change our planning budget," the defense minister said.

Pevkur added that there is no need to revise the state budget strategy, even in light of a potential billion-euro investment.

"We are planning our defense capabilities within the numbers we already have. If something ends up costing more or less than expected, we adjust either the current year's budget or procurement plans for the coming years accordingly. That's entirely logical, since prices in the arms market are constantly shifting," he said.

According to Pevkur, Estonia will have around €10 billion available for defense investments over the next four years — 2026 to 2029. The national defense development plan currently being drafted foresees a total of €24 billion available over a 10-year period.

"These are the parameters we've maintained and within which we're planning national defense," he said.

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