World market milk price dip not reflected in the price of cheese in Estonia
Cheese prices in Europe are falling due to overproduction, but this has not yet been reflected on Estonian store shelves. Producers say prices may drop in February or March.
The price of raw milk on the international market has fallen by 20–30 percent compared with last year, but this has yet to be reflected in the price of cheese per kilogram on store shelves.
Triin Merilyn Varatalu, head of sales and marketing at Estover, told ERR that the price of cream and cheese is falling in Europe due to significant overproduction.
"The price of cream has been in sharp decline in Europe since the end of summer 2025 and since the end of last year, that downward pressure has also started to affect natural cheeses," she confirmed.
According to Varatalu, however, the price of raw milk has not dropped significantly in Estonia or in other EU member states so far, which means there's no real possibility to lower prices just yet.
"It's likely that the first major price-cutters are simply struggling with large stockpiles," Varatalu noted.
Given the current market conditions, Estover has nevertheless adjusted its pricing and promotional prices for butter and natural cheese will appear on store shelves in February and March.
Valio Eesti CEO Maido Solovjov also promised a drop in the price of cheese and butter starting in February, saying that Estonian customers will soon see very good prices.
Lithuanian butter has already become cheaper in Estonian supermarket chains, but according to Solovjov, the Lithuanians simply beat Estonian producers to market.
Cheese not selling at regular prices
Oliver Rist, purchasing director at Coop Eesti Keskühistu, said cheese prices are shifting: some are rising, others falling, depending on the type, brand, raw materials, market conditions and competition. According to him, cheese is one of those product categories where competition is especially fierce and the market is under strong pressure.
"As a result, the majority of what's considered regular sandwich cheese is sold at promotional prices," Rist said, adding that promo pricing is currently on the decline and regular-priced cheese sees little demand.
"Although consumers remain loyal to familiar brands or specific types of cheese, it's clear that, just like in several other key product categories, price is becoming an even bigger factor in purchasing decisions," the purchasing director noted.
Estover's head of sales and marketing pointed out that how long lower cheese prices will last or how far prices may fall depends directly on stock levels, the price of raw milk and production and sales volumes, making it very difficult to forecast.
"Since today's price drops are driven by oversupply rather than a decrease in production input costs, prices likely won't stay this low in the long term. We believe inventories will be brought under control in the coming months and the dairy market will begin to stabilize," said Varatalu.
Valio Eesti's CEO, meanwhile, emphasized that no price hikes are expected in the milk category this year; rather, a slight deflation is likely over the course of the year.
According to data from the Estonian Institute of Economic Research, the average price of cheese per kilogram in December was €11.95, up 20 cents from the same month the year before. A pack of butter cost an average of €14.77 per kilogram in December 2025, compared to €14.08 in December 2024.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski
