Manufacturing uptick at end of 2025 could boost GDP
Estonia's manufacturing sector grew by 3.4 percent at the end of last year, which could push GDP in the fourth quarter "into positive territory," an economist has said.
Data from Statistics Estonia shows that in November 2025, the total production of industrial enterprises increased by 3.4 percent at constant prices compared with the same month of 2024.
Among the three main sectors, output increased by 10 percent in mining and by 4.5 percent in manufacturing but decreased by 8.7 percent in energy production.
The agency's leading analyst Helle Bunder said manufacturing output showed growth again in November after two months of decline.
"It was driven by the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, where output increased by more than half mainly due to the defence industry. There was also a significant rise in the manufacture of other transport equipment, which includes the output of the manufacture of recreational craft," she explained.
In November, the volume of industrial production increased in more than half of the manufacturing sectors. However, the production of food products declined by 4.1 percent, metal products by 0.7 percent, and furniture by 4.3 percent.
Compared with November 2024, the sales of manufacturing output at current prices increased by 3.9 percent. Domestic sales rose by 8.2 percent, and export sales by 1.7 percent.
According to seasonally adjusted data, total industrial output increased by 6 percent in November compared to October, and manufacturing output by 7.5 percent.
Commenting on the figures, Bigbank chief economist Raul Eamets said: "We can expect good news for the economy in the final quarter. Also, from the perspective of the economy as a whole."
"Manufacturing is undoubtedly the most important economic sector in terms of GDP, and now we can hope that this growth at the end of the year will also push the fourth-quarter GDP figures into positive territory," he said.
"What's concerning are the still-declining figures in the food industry. The sales index for the food industry was down both compared to the same period last year and compared to two years ago. The biggest drop was in the dairy industry."
The economist said that was "especially unfortunate" and Estonia should be looking to do more than export raw milk and create products with added value.
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Editor: Helen Wright
