Kristjan Anderson, head of business development at Selver, told ERR on Friday that the sales volume dropped at the chain, which is reflective of a wider trend in the sector.

"The recently published November figures confirm that growth in grocery store sales fell below 1 percent, and the decline in sales volume deepened to -4.7 percent. So, with the decline in sales volumes that started in the spring of 2022, we're now heading into 2025 with a fourth consecutive year of contraction," he said.

Anderson highlighted that the trend stems from the rapid price increase that began in 2022, which outpaced average wage growth and reduced consumers' purchasing power.

"And food products, which rose in price the fastest, surged far ahead of average wage growth," he added.

However, in the second half of 2025, wage growth overtook food price growth, Anderson noted: "If the peak of food inflation was in September-August at 9 percent, then from there it started trending downward, and in the last months of the year it had receded to around 6 percent."

The drop in prices is expected to continue in the coming months to below 5 percent in line with general inflation forecasts.

In 2026, price increases are expected to slow and stay between 3 and 3.5 percent, depending on the forecast. "Which means purchasing power should improve somewhat," Anderson said.

He also recalled the tax change that came into effect this year, which establishes a uniform €700 tax-free income threshold for everyone, providing many wage earners with up to an additional €154 per month.

Customers bought more seafood

No significant price increases expected on the global market, Anderson said. Coffee and orange juice prices, which had recently risen sharply, have started to decline. However, these changes reach Estonia with a delay, he added.

At the same time, fish has become 5–10 percent cheaper over the past year, and as a result, the share of fish products in shopping baskets has increased, Anderson noted.

"It's hard to say whether it signals a shift in trend, with fish displacing meat from people's year-end tables. While meat sales growth was rather modest, only a few percent, seafood sales during the last days of the year increased by nearly a third across different product categories," he said.

For New Year's Eve dinner tables, more scallops, shrimp, caviar, and red fish were bought than usual, while white fish lost a bit of market share.

"But perhaps the year-end is also just a time when people want to set a more festive table and are willing to break from tradition a little. That might also explain the trend," Anderson said, suggesting one possible reason. .

On the other hand, the reason may also lie in prices, he noted. Beef has become more expensive.

Anderson suggested a "stable year" lies ahead. "The prices of raw materials that increased in 2024 and 2025 will begin to come down somewhat. That rule still holds," he said.

Last year, more grilled sausages and smoked items were purchased. Sales of beef declined, but pork stayed the same.

Home cooking on the rise

Anderson believes the trends show a rise in healthier eating habits.

Some signs suggest people are cooking more in general. Sales of home baking products – such as eggs, flour, and butter – all rose by more than 10 percent.

"In recent months, a trend has emerged in meat sales: ground meat — a good indicator product — has fallen slightly below last year's volume. At the same time, other chilled pork products are being bought more. Perhaps this suggests that people are able to set a slightly more generous table, instead of just cooking dishes that contain ground meat," he said.

Despite a 10-15 percent rise in sales of prepared party food and ready-to-eat items at the end of the year, fewer of these products were purchased over the year, Anderson noted. He highlighted the higher unit prices.

"So a retailer sees from these signs that more cooking is indeed being done at home, and that also makes financial sense, because the unit prices of basic products are cheaper than those with more added value. Consumers have figured out these tricks," he said.

"Home cooking is definitely on the rise. That's reflected in shopping baskets — people are buying more fresh and semi-prepared foods, not ready-made ones."

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