There are no projections indicating a decline in the number of young people entering conscription. The goal remains to enlist around 4,000 conscripts annually. In the coming years, the overall number of those eligible is expected to increase and the impact of lacking Estonian language proficiency on conscription is projected to be marginal, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said in response to a written question from Center Party MP Lauri Laats regarding how a new requirement — mandating that conscripts have at least B1-level Estonian — would affect conscription numbers and, by extension, Estonia's defense capability.

Pevkur also cited a forecast from the Estonian Defense Resources Agency (KRA), which estimates that if the language requirement is enforced, about 5 percent of otherwise eligible young men — roughly 200 per year — could not be conscripted.

"In the medium term, this figure is expected to decline, as the transition to Estonian-language education will start having a positive effect in the 2030s. In the longer term, the KRA forecasts that the share of conscripts ineligible due to the language requirement will stabilize at around 1.5 percent. This also accounts for young men who receive their education in private or foreign schools," Pevkur explained.

According to data presented in the minister's letter, 3,462 young people entered conscription in 2020, of whom 235 (6.8 percent) required additional language instruction. The following year, the numbers were 3,164 and 189 (6.0 percent), in 2022, 3,342 and 266 (8.0 percent), in 2023, 3,635 and 243 (6.7 percent) and in 2024, 3,867 and 392 (10.1 percent). Over the five-year period, an average of 7.6 percent of conscripts needed supplementary language training.

Pevkur effectively ruled out the possibility that the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) could provide enough language instruction during service to compensate for insufficient Estonian skills at entry.

"Training begins on the first day of conscription. If a conscript's language skills don't meet the required level, they cannot acquire them to a sufficient and prescribed degree during the service period. The limited language instruction available during conscription allows only for basic communication skills, which is not enough from a training standpoint. The necessary language proficiency must be present at the start, not acquired by the end. Insufficient language skills hinder effective training and negatively affect unit combat readiness and, more broadly, the country's military defense capability," the minister emphasized.

Pevkur reiterated that the purpose of conscription is to ensure the existence of trained reserve units that can be rapidly mobilized in a crisis. He added that the increasing technical sophistication of the EDF requires continuous modernization of the training system.

"To ensure a quick and effective response to the evolving security environment, further strengthening of the Defense Forces' training system is necessary. Improving Estonian language skills among conscripts has so far been an unavoidable need arising from training requirements — not a separate goal. The EDF must focus on its core mission: providing military training," the minister said.

President Alar Karis declined to promulgate a law passed by the Riigikogu on November 19 that amended the Military Service Act and related legislation to stipulate that conscripts must have at least B1-level Estonian. The president argued that the law violates the principle of equal treatment.

Last week, the Riigikogu decided it will amend the bill, which had been initiated by the government and rejected by the president.

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