In recent years, Estonia's autumn weather has been increasingly mild. The proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and the effects of climate change have made the beginning of winter in Estonia feel more like an extension of late autumn.

"Our latitude is such that anything can happen. If we look at the American continent, for example, we are like southern Alaska," Hannes Tõnisson, senior researcher at Tallinn University's Ecology Center told ERR.

December now tends to remain relatively warm mainly due to the lack of sea ice, which in the past helped keep temperatures lower. The open water acts as a heat source, preventing frost and snow from settling.

"Due to the lack of snow and ice, we now have increasingly frequent +8 °C temperatures in early winter and late autumn," explained Tõnisson.

This year's forecast for the holiday season confirms this pattern particularly in western Estonia. Whereas Christmas used to be associated with a blanket of white snow, current models predict the weather will be so warm and snow-free this year that people will be able to partake in activities usually reserved for the fall.

 "It's likely that on Christmas Eve morning, you could go mushroom picking. That probably wouldn't be a bad idea," said Tõnisson.

As of Friday, December 12, the American weather model GFS predicts temperatures of up to 5 degrees Celsius for western Estonia on December 24.

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast was significantly more conservative, predicting temperatures between 0 and 2 degrees Celsius. Estonian meteorologists often consider the latter to be more accurate.

However, hope for snow has not been entirely lost across the country, as the weather may cool down after the holidays. There may also be significant regional differences. The chances of seeing snow on the ground are considerably higher in the hinterland than by the coast. "If we draw a line between Pärnu and Rakvere, then east of that line there may be a slightly higher probability of getting some snow," Tõnisson said.

Despite the above-zero temperatures and lack of snow, ice on the roads remains extremely dangerous for drivers. Even if it is not snowing, the ground is still west, with temperatures hovering around zero quickly causing slippery conditions.

Tõnisson warned drivers against being lulled into a false sense of security: "Once we do have moisture and wetness on the ground, it will start to freeze over the next few hours and then become treacherously slippery."

Those who long for a crisp winter also need to remember that the rhythm of the seasons has shifted in recent years. Real winter now often only arrives in Estonia at the beginning of the new year. But while December is becoming more and more like autumn, it does not mean that winter has completely disappeared.

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