Passenger numbers on the Tallinn–Kuressaare route have dropped nearly 20 percent this year compared with the first 11 months of 2024, and the Tallinn–Kärdla route has seen a similar decline. Local leaders are blaming higher ticket prices.

At the end of 2020, Saaremaa residents got a boost when a larger 42-seat plane began flying the route, adding stability, comfort and safety. Passenger numbers surged, and tickets cost €26 euros.

Now, weekday tickets cost €36 and weekend fares are approaching €40, and many flights run mostly empty as travelers cut back. Over the first 11 months of 2025, passenger numbers on the two island routes combined fell by more than 6,500 to 31,500, reversing years of steady growth.

Saaremaa Municipal Mayor Rainer Antsaar (Isamaa) emphasized that air travel is public transportation, not a luxury.

"The biggest concern is if future plans say the load factor is 50 to 60 percent, the larger plane won't be needed, and we'll switch back to a smaller plane," he said.

Hiiumaa Municipal Mayor Hergo Tasuja (SDE) said the Tallinn–Kärdla route shows the same trend.

He recalled plans to review airfare prices under former minister Piret Hartman (SDE). Following her replacement as minister, Tasuja met her successor in May.

"In person in Hiiumaa, it seemed to me that the minister got it, but somehow he ended up being sidelined within the ministry," Tsauja said.

Minister of Regional Affairs and Agriculture Hendrik Terras (Eesti 200) said the impact will be analyzed.

"If the effect is negative, meaning neither residents benefit nor is it reasonable for the ministry, we will review it," Terras said. "There's certainly food for thought here."

A half-empty flight to Kuressaare currently brings the state €756 per trip. At 75 percent occupancy with the cheaper €26 ticket, revenue would actually be higher. Lower airfare wouldn't cost the state — but it would make flying more accessible to island residents.

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