The studies show that, without state intervention, Estonia will essentially become a city-state named Tallinn in the coming decades. Half of the country's jobs are already located in or around the capital. Larger towns, such as Viljandi or Rakvere, stand to lose a third of their population within the next 25 years.

"To prevent that from happening, we need to strengthen medium-sized towns so that they can continue to function as regional centers of attraction. When it comes to a place like Valga, for instance, we are already seeing that it is no longer able to fulfill that role," said Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications Deputy Secretary General Ivan Sergejev.

According to the ministry's preliminary plan, a capable local government is one whose area of influence has at least 15,000 residents, of whom 15 percent are university-educated, and where more people are employed in the town than there are working-age residents.

Under the plan, Valga, Jõgeva, Põlva, Kärdla, and Rapla should instead be defined as small regional towns.

Sergejev said that Rapla, for example, is affected by its proximity to Tallinn.

"Rapla lies fully within the sphere of Tallinn's pull. Many people commute to work in Tallinn, not Rapla. If we compare this to another town farther from Tallinn that has to provide a more diverse range of services for its population, those towns are able to do that, but Rapla, not so much anymore. It no longer functions as a center, because it is in the orbit of a much larger one," he said.

It is entirely understandable that those affected are not pleased about the change in status.

"The national plan envisions that a center like Rapla should essentially be a place to live, not work, and people should rather commute to Tallinn for jobs. Which is completely at odds with what we have been trying to do in recent years and continue to do — namely, to create more jobs in Rapla," said Tavo Kikas, development manager at the Raplamaa Association of Municipalities.

He said the ministry has promised to make a proposal for small towns like Rapla, but so far there has been no sign that it would boost Rapla's development.

Rapla Municipal Mayor Gert Villard believes the change is related to cost-cutting.

"The state has certain measures through which it funds local governments and their activities. If there's less money available, then accordingly they're trying to scale back those investment environments," Villard said.

What particularly bothers Rapla residents is that while they are being classified as a small town, Paide and Türi in central Estonia are considered regional centers.

Sergejev admits that local views have not been taken into account during the drafting of the national plan. For example, in Valga's case, it has not been acknowledged that the border with Latvia runs through it.

The border town has raised this with the authorities.

"This is very important to Valga, that it retains its status as a county center and that both the Estonian and Latvian governments view it as a single whole; in other words, as a place with 18,000 residents, which is truly unique and certainly requires the same kind of state approach as Ida-Viru County — i.e. investments," said Valga Municipal Mayor Mart Kase.

Sergejev did not say which services or opportunities towns may lose when they are reclassified. The national spatial plan is still being drafted, and nothing has yet been decided, he added.

According to population scientist Tiit Tammaru, who conducted the baseline study, it is advisable to have at least ten regional centers of attraction. There could be more, but it depends on the state's capacity.

"As part of our analysis, we also carried out a financial calculation to estimate how much funding it would take if we want to create jobs and living conditions outside Tallinn. The more centers we have, the greater the investments required," said Tammaru, a professor of population geography.

He said the biggest advantage of the scenario with ten centers is that it allows most Estonians to have access to jobs relatively close to home.

"The downside, of course, is that life in smaller places is declining. That decline is due to population aging, and inevitably, it will not be possible to maintain all the current services everywhere," Tammaru said.

He added that not being included among the centers of attraction does not mean small towns will be ignored. While their importance in terms of employment will decrease, attention can instead be focused on improving the living environment.

The draft national spatial plan will be made public at the beginning of February next year.

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