GDP at current prices totaled €10.5 billion in Q3 2025, the agency said. Economic growth continued at the same pace as in the previous quarter.

Commenting on the results, Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia, said that while the economy has shown slight growth for two consecutive quarters, the contribution of most sectors has remained insignificant.

"Manufacturing was the biggest positive contributor to GDP in the third quarter, with its value added growing by 7.9 percent. The last time this sector performed so well was in the fourth quarter of 2021. However, it must be noted that production figures were still modest," Müürsepp noted.

By sector, the energy sector (which grew by 21.5 percent on year to Q3 2025) and real estate (up 4.4 percent over the same period) drove growth the most. Wholesale and retail trade as well as transportation and storage (both down by 6.9 percent), along with human health and social work (down 4.5 percent), were the main sectors that held growth back, Statistics Estonia said.

Value added and tax revenues up, private consumption down

Value added grew 0.5 percent in Q3 2025. It stayed flat in non-financial corporations and fell by 0.2 percent in the financial sector and 0.9 percent in non-profits. Government value added rose by 3.3 percent, its fastest growth in six quarters. Value added is the total output of enterprises minus the value of inputs used.

VAT receipts continued to rise despite July's two percentage-point rate hike, Statistics Estonia found. Net production taxes rose 3.4 percent in Q3 2025. Both value added and these taxes made up about half of GDP growth.

Meanwhile, private consumption fell by 0.6 percent on year to Q3 2025, mainly due to lower spending on alcohol and tobacco, food, accommodation, and transport. The strongest growth came in financial and insurance services, education, and furnishings.

Government final consumption rose 3.4 percent in the quarter, its fastest growth since Q2 2024.

Investments declined slightly, foreign trade growth accelerated

Müürsepp noted that investments in Q3 2025 remained close to the level of the same quarter last year, decreasing by only 0.7 percent.

"The drop in investments was mainly driven by a decrease in enterprises' investments in machinery and equipment (down 27.3 percent), which was in line with modest production output. The biggest positive contributions came from an increase of households' investments in dwellings (12.1 percent), which was also reflected in the rise of private consumer spending on furnishings. The growth of general government investments in other buildings and structures (8.8 percent) also had a positive impact," Müürsepp added.

Exports and imports

Exports rose 5.7 percent on year to Q3 2025, while imports went up by 5.6 percent over the same time frame. Net exports were €147 million positive.

The exports of goods rose 3.9 percent, and imports 3.6 percent, led by metals, gold, oil, and gas. Services exports grew 8.1 percent in Q3 2025, driven by IT and business services. Services imports rose 9.8 percent, driven mainly by business, transport, construction, and storage.

Seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP rose by 0.4 percent between Q2 and Q3 2025 and by 0.9 percent on year to Q3 2025.

Statistics Estonia conducted the above study on behalf of the Ministry of Finance.

More detailed information is available from Statistics Estonia here and here.

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