According to Tiit Tammaru, professor of urban and population geography at the University of Tartu, the COVID-19 pandemic gave new momentum to the trend of moving back to the countryside. The global event, which upended many lives, introduced and normalized remote work, making people less tied to a specific location. Still, Tammaru says it's too early to talk about a reversal of urbanization, as the trend of moving out of cities began to decline again after the pandemic ended.

A nationwide spatial planning study conducted last year, which forecast population movement and demographic changes through 2050, found that under all projected scenarios, Tallinn's population is set to grow. Meanwhile, rural populations are expected to decline across the board. Tammaru notes that this is not solely due to urbanization: "Rural areas have an aging population, so their numbers are falling overall even if some Tallinn residents choose to move to the countryside."

The capital region remains a major draw and reversing that trend is difficult. Still, where people choose to live is strongly connected to the stages of their lives. For example, young people tend to want to be where the action is and often move to cities to pursue education. "But there's a turning point that tends to come in one's 30s, when being in the city starts to feel less important," Tammaru said.

In the study, young people were asked to describe their ideal place to live. The answers were split evenly between those preferring the city and those leaning toward the countryside, even though the vast majority of respondents were living in Tallinn at the time. "Contrary to the image of today's restless youth, we found that most of them would actually prefer to own a home. Renting is usually a necessity forced on them by high prices," Tammaru said. The more people move to the capital, the higher housing prices climb, making it increasingly likely that some residents will eventually move away.

Urban lifestyles moving to the countryside with people

Lifestyles have changed — people no longer work the land in rural areas and the urban way of life tends to follow them into the countryside, as most jobs are still located in cities, agreed Tarmo Korõtko, senior researcher in microgrids and metrology at Tallinn University of Technology, with Tiit Tammaru. Before the explosive rise of remote work, rural life was more of a seasonal experience for city dwellers. Now, however, people are making more use of their second homes in the countryside.

According to Tammaru, people expect urban comforts in rural living. "For example, many old farmhouses — surprisingly often used as a primary residence — are being renovated into very modern homes," he noted. The national spatial planning study also found that when people move to the countryside, they often choose locations based on the availability of fast, permanent internet connections.

Living a modern lifestyle in rural areas requires ample energy reserves and a reliable electricity supply. But because the overall population in the countryside is shrinking, Korõtko says it doesn't make economic sense for grid operators to invest heavily in upgrading or reinforcing the network there. In areas where power lines are outdated or entirely lacking, off-grid electrical systems — producing all electricity on-site — can seem like an ideal alternative. Unfortunately, the reality is not quite so rosy.

Micro and nanogrids

A system disconnected from the central power grid, which includes both producers and consumers, can be referred to as an islanded microgrid or nanogrid. Generally, a microgrid encompasses multiple households and is suitable for describing the electricity distribution network of a village or urban district. In contrast, a single building or property's electricity system is more accurately called a nanogrid, according to Tarmo Korõtko. In both cases, an independent control system is essential to manage the operation of the grid and all assets connected to it.

Although microgrids and nanogrids are not new concepts, events in recent years, such as the systematic destruction of energy infrastructure in Ukraine and extreme fluctuations in energy prices, have sparked growing interest in them. At the same time, renewable energy generation equipment and energy storage solutions have become more accessible and affordable. According to Korõtko, islanded microgrids face broadly the same challenges as larger electricity systems with a high share of renewables: system flexibility and the seasonal nature of energy production.

To maintain stable frequency and grid voltage, electricity generation and consumption must be balanced at every moment. "If a system has high inertia, it can better withstand sudden changes in production and consumption because those changes are absorbed by the larger system," the senior researcher explained. To illustrate this, he compared it to throwing a stone into different bodies of water: "If you throw a brick into a puddle, it causes a mess. But if you throw it into the middle of Lake Peipus, nothing really changes at the shoreline."

In smaller power systems, changes in load, such as turning on a sauna heater or a cloud passing over a solar panel, have a much greater impact and controllable, flexible devices must respond to these quickly and appropriately. "In a poorly designed or managed off-grid system, even a relatively small load spike can destabilize the system and cause cascading equipment shutdowns, potentially resulting in a power outage or, worse, equipment or system failure," Korõtko said.

Compared to grid-connected systems, off-grid solutions are more complex and place stricter requirements on the equipment used, which in turn increases the total project cost.

In addition, the seasonality of renewable energy production causes wide fluctuations in the amount of energy generated throughout the year. "It likely comes as no surprise that solar panels generate around 20 percent of their annual output in the best month and only about 1 percent in the worst," said Korõtko.

To ensure energy security using local renewable sources, it is crucial to diversify energy production. Sun, wind and flowing water are the three most common renewable energy sources used in microgeneration. "Since solar and wind energy are essentially in opposite seasonal phases, combining them is a good strategy, but even then, you have to be prepared for weeks with no sun or wind," Korõtko noted.

While short-term battery storage works well for improving system flexibility, seasonal energy storage remains a challenge. "The simplest way to guarantee energy security is with a liquid-fuel generator, but that runs counter to the goal of achieving 100 percent renewable energy use. It also doesn't match the aesthetic ideal of idyllic rural life, with the monotonous hum of an internal combustion engine," Korõtko added.

One promising option, he said, is the so-called vehicle-to-grid (V2G) solution. In this case, an electric car functions as a power source, essentially acting as a mobile battery storage unit. "There are increasing reports of people driving to their country homes, which have no permanent electricity supply, and powering their needs from their car batteries for the weekend," Korõtko said. While this isn't suitable for permanent living and can't replace a true islanded microgrid, it still opens up interesting possibilities.

"The optimal solution might be a microgrid that is connected to the distribution grid but operates its devices in a way that minimizes both the energy drawn from the grid and the peak load, without feeding electricity back into the network," the senior researcher suggested. In other words, the system first uses the output from its own solar panels or other renewable sources, drawing as little electricity from the grid as possible.

This approach has several advantages. The microgrid still benefits from the grid's stable voltage and frequency, making the system technically simpler and less expensive than a fully independent off-grid solution. While it requires a grid connection and offers only limited backup during outages, it still reduces system complexity and overall cost.

Korõtko added that there's another key benefit to being connected to the grid: "Another reason to maintain a grid connection is the ability to offer grid services. The microgrid's energy flexibility, such as having a battery, can contribute to maintaining stable frequency in the overall grid. To do this, the microgrid must join a service provider or aggregator that brings this flexibility to the market." This allows microgrid owners to earn extra income, shortening the payback period for their investment.

Motivation differs in peace- and wartime

When choosing between a so-called standard, unmanaged grid system, a grid-connected microgrid or an off-grid system, it's essential to first determine the consumer's expectations regarding the reliability and quality of the electricity supply, says Tarmo Korõtko. "When it comes to households, short-term power outages usually cause only minor inconvenience. But for an industrial operation, even a small voltage dip or brief interruption can shut down an entire production line or lead to wasted raw materials," he noted.

The perspective shifts drastically when the motivation isn't just convenience or return on investment, but rather the continued functioning of essential services. "When we talk about preparing for power outages, we tend to have a romanticized image of spending a day or two by candlelight, heating with a wood stove," Korõtko said. "Compare that to Puerto Rico, for instance, which is frequently battered by hurricanes and earthquakes — there, the realization of such risks can mean living without electricity or water for six months or more."

Similarly, Ukraine has had to constantly adapt its electricity systems under crisis conditions, reshaping its energy infrastructure for greater resilience. "Ukrainian grid operators now have more experience and insight in this area than any other operator in Europe. We absolutely need to learn from them — how to reconfigure our grids, systems and operating procedures to make our energy infrastructure more resilient to crises," the senior researcher emphasized.

Preparing for crises involves risk assessment — evaluating both the likelihood of an event occurring and the potential severity of its impact. "The more serious we perceive a threat to be, the more we're willing to invest to ensure adequate preparedness and the less weight we give to cost-efficiency concerns," Korõtko said.

In his view, the ideal electricity system would operate under normal conditions much like it does today: with a few centralized production units, a main transmission network, a distribution grid, consumers and small-scale producers. But in a crisis, that system should be capable of breaking down into smaller, self-sufficient energy islands — organized by village, city or district. In this setup, microgrids would play a central role.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!