This year, 23 percent of basic school graduates nationwide failed the mathematics exam. The result marks a slight improvement from last year, when the failure rate stood at 24.5 percent. However, this average masks two very different realities: schools where passing the exam is taken for granted and schools where the math exam has become an insurmountable obstacle for many.

Results distribution

The data analysis highlights a now-familiar contrast. At the top of the rankings are elite schools such as Tallinn Secondary School of Science (Tallinna reaalkool), Miina Härma High School and the Old Town Educational College (Vanalinna hariduskolleegium), where not a single student out of hundreds failed the exam.

In stark contrast are schools in major regional centers and suburban districts of the capital. For example, in Valga Municipality, 53.5 percent of students failed the exam; in Kohtla-Järve, the failure rate was 45 percent. Even in Tallinn, some schools performed below average: at Tallinn Art High School and Lasnamäe High School, more than half of the students did not pass the exam (57 percent and 51 percent, respectively).

Hele Kiisel, chair of the Estonian Mathematical Society's school mathematics division, sees consistency as a key strength of high-performing schools. "They have long-standing experience and a stable teaching staff. Even when teachers change, the school's working style remains the same," Kiisel explained. In schools with weaker results, high teacher turnover often disrupts the continuity of learning, she said.

At the same time, this is not a new problem. "We found in the archives that as early as 1955, 20 percent of students failed the basic school mathematics exam," Kiisel noted. Back then, the ministry held meetings with universities in response, but seventy years later, the situation is essentially unchanged, pointing to the systemic nature of the issue.

The hierarchical nature of mathematics

Why is the failure rate so high in many schools? Maarja Sõrmus, a junior lecturer in mathematics education at the University of Tartu, explains that it has to do with the hierarchical structure of the subject. Unlike many other subjects, each new concept in mathematics builds directly on previous knowledge. "If there's a gap at some point — say a topic is not understood — then it becomes impossible to build new knowledge on top of that," Sõrmus said. In other words, you can't place the next block where there's a missing piece.

Sõrmus pointed out that when key concepts aren't mastered in the early grades, it becomes very difficult to catch up later. Strong-performing schools often have an advantage in identifying and filling these gaps right away. In contrast, schools struggling with heavy workloads or a shortage of teachers may see these gaps accumulate over the years.

Addressing these learning gaps largely depends on a school's initiative and resources. Hele Kiisel noted that the situation across Estonia is highly uneven: some schools systematically offer extra classes and tutoring for students who are falling behind, while others leave struggling students to fend for themselves. "There are schools where extra support is provided and schools where nothing is done at all," she said. Kiisel emphasized that this additional support can be the deciding factor in whether a student manages to pass the exam or not.

Language proficiency

Statistics show that weaker results are more common in large urban schools with a Russian-language background, particularly in Tallinn and Ida-Viru County — pointing to language as a barrier to learning the subject. This is supported by a comprehensive study titled "Digiefekt," conducted by researchers from the University of Tartu's Institute of Education between 2020 and 2023.

The study, which included 14 schools and nearly 1,000 students — and in which Maarja Sõrmus herself participated — found a clear correlation: performance in Estonian strongly predicts a student's math performance, but not the other way around. "If a student's Estonian skills are weaker, it will show in math as well," Sõrmus explained. The main challenge lies in word problems, where real-life context and specific vocabulary, such as the difference between the concepts of "number" and "digit," can become stumbling blocks for students.

At the same time, outcomes among Russian-language schools are not uniform. For example, at Tallinn Tõnismäe Science School, only 6 percent of students failed the exam, demonstrating that with a strong academic focus, it is possible to reduce the impact of the language barrier. However, Hele Kiisel warns of a broader trend: "We're starting to see a kind of segregation based on language, where students from similar backgrounds are concentrated in certain schools."

Pressure from gamification and smart devices

In addition to social factors, experts are also pointing to shifts in learning culture. According to Hele Kiisel, there is increasing pressure in schools to make learning as playful as possible — something that may conflict with the kind of structured, repetitive work needed to master mathematics. "It's all 'happy-happy' at school and then suddenly the exam is on the 'wrong day'?" Kiisel asked, highlighting the disconnect between the comfort zone of daily classroom life and the demands of the exam.

Kiisel also pointed to the premature use of technology as a contributing factor. In her view, calculators should not be introduced until students have mastered operations with common fractions. If students rely on digital tools too early, they may never develop a true understanding of the logic behind the operations. Without a solid grasp of fractions and percentages, it becomes very difficult to solve the types of problems that form the foundation of high school mathematics.

Maarja Sõrmus added that abstract and outdated learning materials are also a concern. "If the entire textbook consists of problems like, 'Tõnu started driving from city A and Mari from city D,' then it just doesn't connect with young people's real-life experience anymore," she said. According to Sõrmus, students need assignments that relate to their actual interests and everyday lives. It is this personal connection that sparks motivation and the willingness to engage deeply with more complex topics.

At the same time, psychological factors, such as math anxiety, should not be overlooked. Anxiety interferes with the brain's ability to solve problems. This often starts at home, when parents try to comfort their children with comments like, "No one in our family has ever been good at math." According to Sõrmus, this sends the message that struggling with math is a fixed trait rather than a challenge that can be overcome. When students are anxious, they struggle to focus or apply what they know, making a supportive and encouraging home environment critically important.

Exam timing

According to teacher feedback, this year's results were also affected by the exam being scheduled earlier than usual. Hele Kiisel noted that in some cases, this meant the material wasn't fully covered — for example, many schools didn't reach the topic of stereometry, or spatial geometry, before the exam took place.

It's also important to remember that an exam result reflects only a snapshot of a student's knowledge on a specific day. According to Sõrmus, many external factors can influence performance, such as a sleepless night, personal issues or not feeling well. Since the exam takes place at the same time for everyone, it inevitably measures a student's readiness and composure in that exact moment, sometimes obscuring their actual potential.

Experts agree that a situation where nearly a quarter of students fail the math exam signals a systemic issue. One proposed solution is restoring stability and addressing learning gaps at earlier stages of schooling. "We need stability. When a student enters school, they should know how they'll finish that stage — not have the rules change halfway through. Let schools do their work in peace and leave the subject curricula alone for a few years," Kiisel concluded.

The final data on students who passed the mathematics exam will be released by the Education and Youth Board by December 10, the official end date of the basic school final exam year.

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