"The price of Elenger's flexible package for residential customers will remain at the current level of €0.54 per cubic meter in December and January. There are many variables on the market, and the situation is unstable; it is not a certainty that the current price will hold. There are risks that the market may move slightly upward again. For now, we are keeping the customer price stable and monitoring further developments," Kaasik said.

The fall in TTF gas prices is driven by a combination of factors, he told ERR.

First, Europe has been receiving significantly more Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes this year compared with last year — cumulatively slightly over 30 percent more over the year — while global LNG capacities are set to expand considerably in the coming years. This creates market-side pressure toward lower prices in the medium term, Kaasik said.

Second, over the short term, demand forecasts have softened thanks to the milder and windier periods expected in Europe in the coming weeks, although longer-term winter forecasts remain uncertain.

Third, the international political signals surrounding recent diplomatic initiatives on the Russian invasion of Ukraine have temporarily reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Globally speaking, hopes for a Ukraine–Russia truce have been revived, which could end up increasing the supply of both oil and gas on the world market, Kaasik went on.

The gas price on the TTF exchange this week fell below the €30 per megawatt-hour mark, for the first time since spring 2024. The figure was over €40 per megawatt-hour as recently as the summer, even as demand is necessarily lower at that time of year.

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