The U.S. blocking the sale of Lukoil's assets to the Swiss company Gunvor also shows America is taking sanctions seriously, Kross told "Ukraina Stuudio."

"That is encouraging in the sense that it shows the White House is genuinely committed to enforcing these sanctions and is really trying to squeeze Putin. And these sanctions are already having an effect," Kross said.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's announcement last Thursday that NATO countries are now producing more ammunition combined than Russia is alone was welcome, as was the news German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is also opening factories in both Latvia and Lithuania – in terms of regional defense even as countries in other areas of Europe spend less on defense.

"Looking at the region, we're actually in a relatively better position than many others, especially in western and southern Europe, thanks to Finland. Because if ammunition is ever needed, then in addition to NATO production somewhere, it's important that some of it is produced nearby," Kross noted.

In the case of Finland, it ramped up its output even ahead of formally joining NATO in 2023.

"In my opinion, Finland has been producing at full capacity since 2022. So Finland should have plenty of stockpiles. They might need some themselves too, but it gives a certain sense of reassurance," he added.

Ammunition production in Europe should certainly be boosted further still, however. "Europe's stock levels are very poor. So Europe is not producing only for Ukraine, but first and foremost for itself," Kross said.

As for Russia's negatives, human resources at the front are increasingly becoming an issue, following the September 2022 conscription round and then the introduction of paid contracts.

"One of Putin's biggest problems is that he absolutely doesn't want another mobilization – it is deeply unpopular. They're using every possible method to find contract soldiers. The Russians have always had the problem of whether they can replenish their losses. If they lose 1,000 men a day, they need to find 1,000 plus a few more to replace them. For a while, they managed that fairly well. Right now, they're having a bit more trouble. But the Russians still have more men than the Ukrainians. So this is a war of attrition," Kross explained.

As for war fatigue, this is more a mental attitude, he noted.

"I'm actually more worried about the kind of attrition that's happening in our minds. This talk of war fatigue is starting up again. But honestly, sitting here in our armchairs – what do we have to be tired about?"

How severe Russia's current economic woes are and what impact they might have is harder to assess, Kross said, partly because Russia is increasingly concealing its economic data. "In Russia, many of the rules that apply in Western societies simply don't work. [If] people don't get paid – nothing major happens. There will be no strikes. I would say Russia has plateaued right now. Things are definitely not going well for them; there are serious problems in the economy, yet I don't see a collapse happening any time soon."

This remains the case within the regime too, he added, noting recent news about the replacement of a deputy defense minister is not particularly significant.

"There have been constant reshuffles within the defense ministry. Five deputy defense ministers have been replaced during the course of the war, the defense minister himself too. The latest change was the deputy minister for logistics. So that could mean that Putin is dissatisfied with logistics," Kross said.

"[But] there isn't really any major shake-up going on. Yes, Putin is keeping that so-called sense of threat alive, calling out people from time to time. But it is likely that the chaos in the army hasn't improved much either. Even so, the circle surrounding Putin has crystallized quite firmly. They're in a tunnel; there's no way out for them. They can't get off this war wagon until Putin says so."

Trump has reportedly also given Hungary a one-year exemption from sanctions over its continued purchases of Russian oil and gas.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!