This trend, according to state prosecutor Raigo Aas, has made the drug more accessible and coincided with a rise in overdose cases.

In addition, newer synthetic opioids, some of them not yet on the banned substances list, have been emerging, alongside the more established nitazenes. These developments, Aas said, reflect a broader shift in the country's drug landscape.

One factor behind the stable or falling price of cocaine is increased production in South America, thanks to favorable cultivating conditions and the need to market the larger output somewhere, Aas said. As a result, the increased output means the wholesale prices charged for the drug when it arrives in Europe, now a more dominant market even than the U.S., have been falling. Wages have also been rising in Europe.

"When the prices of narcotics remain stable or cheaper, and people's incomes have doubled or risen by tens of percent over the past 10 years, it inevitably becomes more affordable for the average consumer," Aas said.

This growing affordability has been accompanied by a rise in cocaine-related harm. According to the state prosecutor, the number of deaths related to cocaine use has risen in recent years, both in Estonia and across Europe. Most of the fatal cases are not caused by a single substance but involve habitual users who mix several drugs, he added.

"People who party on a Friday and Saturday often mix cocaine with alcohol, making it a long weekend, then on Sunday they take sedatives or psychotropic substances," he said, describing typical overdose cases. "Among the victims there are many who have used a cocktail of substances — sedatives, stimulants."

Parallel to the spread of cocaine, synthetic opioids remain a serious concern. Another group of users contributing to drug death statistics are synthetic opioid users. For years, injecting drug users relied on fentanyl, but when a crackdown met with success and fentanyl temporarily disappeared from the market, nitazenes took its place. As of now, new psychoactive substances have reached Estonia, some with chemical names difficult even to pronounce.

"The problem is that some of these substances are so new they're not yet on the list of banned substances, and it takes time to determine what effects they have and to get them included," Aas noted.

Users of substances like these often don't even know whether they are taking fentanyl, nitazene, or a completely new synthetic opioid, since the user base is the same and addicts believe they are buying their regular drug. Dealers themselves may also be unaware that what they are selling is an experimental drug being tested out on the local market.

Overdose statistics underline the ongoing danger. Estonia is now roughly where it was in 2016. In the past couple of years, the number of drug-related deaths has hovered at around 100 a year, with nearly half caused by synthetic opioids.

"It doesn't make much difference whether it's fentanyl, nitazene, or something else. Dosages are already risky and borderline, but with new substances the danger is even greater. Information spreads by word of mouth on the street, people share their experiences about the effects of certain drugs, and adjust doses accordingly," Aas went on.

Getting a new substance added on to the banned list can take several months, or even longer. Much depends, according to the prosecutor, on how widely the drug is circulating and how dangerous it is. Sometimes a new substance is detected only a few times — possibly a test batch — so authorities must determine how much of it is actually spreading and whether it is seen in other countries.

"Dozens of new substances are found every year. For this reason not all of them make it onto the list right away," Aas said.

Selling a novel drug can still be penalized

However, this need not mean that a dealer selling what to them is an unknown substance is immune from punishment if caught. According to the prosecutor, a person can still be prosecuted if it can be proven that the seller knew or believed they were dealing in a banned narcotic such as nitazene or fentanyl, even if it was actually another substance which ironically might not yet be illegal in Estonia. If that can be proven, charges can be filed.

"Quite often even the dealers themselves don't know the exact chemical composition and act as they always have — selling what they assume to be an illegal drug," Aas explained.

That said, the prosecutor conceded that the arrival of new substances presents an increasing challenge for prosecutors. Still, he added, some patterns remain consistent.

On the other hand, cases of drivers caught behind the wheel under the influence of unknown opioids are rare, Aas said, since drug-impaired drivers are more often users of other substances like cannabis, amphetamine, cocaine, or GHB.

One stimulant that had temporarily fallen in use but has reappeared in recent years is the synthetic drug alpha-PVP, nicknamed "ufo." Aas said it is being actively marketed both in Estonia and the neighboring countries. He recalled that when several major arrests and seizures removed large amounts of fentanyl from Estonia's streets in 2017–2018, the drug disappeared for a few years, and the number of deaths dropped noticeably. But in more recent years, there have been no such large-scale seizures, Aas added.

"Our trend over the past two or three years has been a lot of cooperation with Latvia, and the vast majority of synthetic opioids — 99 percent of them — originate in Latvia. Either they are brought here by Estonians or delivered by Latvian gangs. There are more factors involved than just the capacity of Estonian law enforcement," Aas explained, adding that several dozen Latvian citizens have been convicted in Estonia for handling such substances.

Cocaine reaches Estonia from the rest of Europe in kilogram-size quantities

Meanwhile, cocaine continues to enter Estonia through European routes. According to Aas, cocaine enters Estonia mostly via the EU land border: smugglers travel to Spain, the Netherlands, or Central Europe and bring it back by car or bus in one- or two-kilogram batches. Larger quantities are seldom transported to Estonia all at once. Drug mules are relatively few and far between too, and while drugs do also get sent by post, this is not the main route, Aas added.

"Every year we have several cases where a person is caught with one or more kilograms of cocaine brought to Estonia via land," he said.

Among couriers there are those trying to make easy money, often on a one-off basis, but the organized criminals — the main distributors — are seasoned dealers with strong connections to other offenders in Estonia and abroad, and with the financial resources to organize and fund such operations.

According to Aas, cocaine reaches Europe itself mainly by sea. Whereas in the past the main entry points were large ports such as Rotterdam in the Netherlands, tighter controls there have meant that trends have changed.

"Criminals are searching for new ways to bring it in, and they can be very inventive. Generally, this is maritime transport — in containers, on yachts, even submarines. Often it doesn't come directly [from South America] but via West Africa or the southern Mediterranean," Aas explained.

Law enforcement continues to adapt to these evolving threats. The fight against drug trafficking is endless for law enforcement agencies — there are many actors, and, according to Aas, there has to be some targeted prioritization.

"The goal is generally to focus on the groups and individuals with the greatest impact, or on specific narrower types of drugs. In recent years, one of these has certainly been synthetic opioids, since both their users and distributors form a somewhat smaller circle, and geographically their use is concentrated in northern and northeastern Estonia," he said.

Other narcotics such as cannabis, cocaine, and amphetamines are widespread everywhere. Since Estonia's drug market is not a closed system, cooperation with foreign states is often required.

Situation worse than five years ago

According to the prosecutor, the drug situation in Estonia is slightly better than it was a decade ago, though worse than the case five years ago.

"It seems the number of deaths is slowly receding. Two years ago there were 113 deaths, last year a hundred, and the current trend suggests it may stay below one hundred this year," Aas said. "The main change is the growing share of cocaine use and poly-drug use. Ten years ago synthetic opioids like fentanyl were the main concern."

According to the National Institute for Health Development (TAI), 42 percent of last year's drug fatalities were caused by potent synthetic opioids and nitazenes, while deaths from cocaine overdoses also remained high.

A TAI wastewater survey showed that cocaine use last year was slightly lower than in 2023, but, following cannabis, cocaine remains the most widely used illegal drug in Estonia.

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